Seems like my last post about BTC didn't age too badly, although I admit, I had that meme as a joke. Since then, the market has gone down, so much so, that people are now actually considering that the top was in. ALTs are in shambles, and I completely admit that this has taken me off guard. A bear in a bull year feels like 5 sigma event - and yet, we can't really make such a statement when we are only in March...
In fact, it's been perfectly on track so far. Back in 2023 I gave this outlook which was completely validated:
We know from past cycles that correction do occur quite often leading up to the peak. Take the 2015-2018 period: BTC saw regularly 40% corrections:
Currently, BTC is sitting at a 30% correction and if I were a BTC holder (yeah I am an ALT guy...) I would be not alarmed at all.
I am gaining confidence that BTC will hit around $300k at the end of this year. There is a really nice trend line coming from the peaks of the 2nd and 3rd cycle that signal that area. As we can see from the 2021 peaks that give us the ~$100k resistance, these trend lines are pretty relevant.
But here is the twist. I think we could see a second peak in mid 2026 (a lower high) that could give us an ALT market peak. In other words, the cycle could still fit in the 4 year window, but slightly shifted into 2026. In 2021 we saw such a double peak as well, although the first one would be in spring this year - so it's essentially shifted by around 5-8 months.
While the house has almost burnt down for ALTs (at least it feels like it), BTC is still in a very good spot. BTC.D is also now again at almost 62% and just shy of the 66%+ target I have called for earlier. This could, perhaps, signal a trend change.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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