BTC almost down to 90k and everyone panics as usual. At least newcomers are spared by the regular 40%+ corrections BTC had in the previous cycles when running up. It only takes 10% now to enter FUD mode. I couldn't care less and it's very amusing.
First, we are on the assumption here that BTC actually does peak in 2025, staying true to the 4 year cycle. It has always worked so far, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it changes at some point in time.
Back in late 2023 I shared this outlook and I am happy to say that it has held up very well:
Now lets look at what happened in over a year.
100% confirmation :) although I admit, the margin of error was rather big as well. An important trend line that I forgot to draw was where price now encountered a big resistance in the 100k area. On hindsight it seems obvious that we would see a small set back here.
I think with Trump getting sworn in in January as well as with all of the pro crypto regulation (or lack thereof) happening just after that it should catapult the whole market above this resistance and culminate in the first peak of the market. It is still unclear if we will see two peaks like we saw int he last cycle or it's just going to be one big run up, but I am somewhat hope that it will be the first scenario.
If so, we could see something that looks like what I drew into the chart. A peak in spring of 2025 at around ~$250k, then a correction back to ~$150k, and finally a peak above $300k. I am not too confident about these targets as they depend on many factors that could greatly move them. Should we get a second peak, it could also be anywhere between $300k and $500k+ and it is impossible to say where it would peak exactly, but at least I can give a range.
In any case, I am at least confident that $108k will not be the cycle top. There is simply just way too much bullishness left in this cycle. But be prepared to sell a part of your portfolio along the way to avoid getting left out again and having to wait another 4 years to "finally" cash out.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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