Since my initial impressions post, we have a lot of information. I have also taken the time to research on Justin Sun and Tron. Justin Sun made a post, which is still trending #1. I made a comment on that post (and many other community members felt similarly) appealing for cancellation of the token swap and explore better ways to transition. I'm happy to see that our voices were heard, and Justin made the correct decision.
First, a bit about Tron and Justin Sun. Looking online, Tron seems to have a very polarizing reputation. Some people love it, while others regularly mock and hate on it. This reminded me why I don't really follow the altcoin space, there's just too much noise and tribalism. The reality, as usual, is somewhere in the middle. Justin Sun seems to epitomize the concept of "fake it till you make it". That may seem derogatory, but it's a legit way of building a company or ecosystem. As of now, it seems like Justin is making it. Tron is a legit, working blockchain. We all knew the drawbacks of DPoS before, but EOS has had so many issues and challenges, there's now clear evidence that this is not a sustainable solution long-term. Whether so-called "third generation blockchains" like Cardano and Ethereum 2.0 can solve this scalability vs. sustainability problem remains to be seen. Signs are promising though.
Anyway, Tron. I have said many times before that the "fundamental value" of a blockchain has very little to do with metrics like, number of active users, number of dApps, number of transactions etc. It's all about the economic activity. On that note, Tron leaves a lot to be desired, falling far behind bitcoin and ethereum, and to a lesser extent even EOS. Still, in terms of market cap, Tron is currently worth $1.61 billion, which is nearly 20 times greater than STEEM. So, let it be very, very clear - Tron is a much, much bigger deal than Steem.
Application specific blockchains seemed like a good idea in 2015, but they suffer from one showstopping, deal-breaking problem that has become all too evident - i.e. the lack of network effects and economies of scale. These are well understood concepts that have held true through centuries across pretty much all industries and platforms. Evidently, crypto is no exception. Even today, the rational choice will always be a Layer 2 solution on ethereum with Optimistic Rollup or whatever - the economic network effect it has built over the years is formidable and nigh insurmountable in the smart contracts space.
Now, I know, some of you have very heavy STEEM bags, and it's natural to be be outraged at my heresy towards DPoS and such. Please, for a moment, be rational - the crypto economy is clearly consolidating in a different direction and has been for several years now. If not, let's just agree to disagree and move on as this discussion is about Steem and Tron.
Back to the live stream. It was one of the most boring, poorly prepared, poorly presented live streams I have ever seen. It was mostly fluff and Justin & Ned massaging their egos (anyone else cringed hard when Justin said "Someone on Twitter is saying Justin is GOAT" and Ned retorted by saying "Someone else is saying Ned is amazing"? Damn.), but there was also some good information.
It is now obvious that the announcement was rushed to steal the thunder of EOS' Voice beta launch. It is clear that Justin & Tron did not do their due diligence, had no real plan, and just cobbled together whatever they could by Feb 14th. Also clear is that Justin did not understand the complexities of Steem, and probably still does not fully.
The good news is there has been a lot of positive progress in just 24 hours between the initial announcement and the live stream. The token swap was greatly unpopular and has thus been called off. The current plan is that... there is no plan whatsoever. While that sounds disappointing, it's still better than a bad plan. So, we are going to maintain status quo for the short term, but make no mistake, the goal is still to integrate Steem with Tron. Obviously, they don't know how they can do that just yet, and it could take several years to materialize. I think this is probably the best case scenario for now, but of course, the jury is out till Tron can decide and announce their plans. We'll evaluate those plans separately as and when they come.
Let's be clear - Steem has been dying a slow death since 2017. I don't mean it literally, of course. Under the current regime, Steemit, Inc. have proven to lack any vision, and the 2018 layoffs have meant glacially slow progress. To be clear, I highly respect the developers at Steemit, Inc. - they are decent, talented people doing their best given the situation, but they simply do not have the resources to maintain and develop a major social network. Meanwhile, Steem witnesses by and large haven't been able to aid development either. So, Steem wasn't going to die - of course, not - but it was destined to remain a niche community. Economically, STEEM price was always going to degenerate versus bitcoin, due to the high and "dumb" inflation, save for the brief pumps and dumps. If you still think Steem is going to be a "Facebook killer", please, let's just agree to disagree, I don't want to go there.
Will Tron "save" Steem, then? Who knows? But one thing's for sure, Tron has far more resources than Steemit, Inc. ever did. Justin Sun is also a formidable marketer and shiller, something Steem has never had. Will Steem improve under Tron? I don't know. But what is quite likely is it'll be a more active community when Justin is done exercising his shilling prowess.
Finally, Communities are launching next week. I have been asking for this feature ever since I first joined Steem/it. Some 2016 Steemians may remember I was one of the most active users of the chain through mid 2016 and early 2017, but I significantly decreased my activity through 2017 and by early 2018 I was mostly inactive. Many have asked me why I chose the height of euphoria to mostly-leave - there are several reasons. But my greatest disappointment that signaled this network is gearing up for decline was Ned's statement on 28th April 2017 that they are aiming to release the Communities feature "by the end of q2", just two months later. At the time, we knew Steemit were pretty slow and their dates unrealistic - much like all of the blockchain space. I even joked that, "Note how he neglected to mention the year. It's probably going to be Q2 2018." Of course, I received a fair amount of hate for suggesting Communities is not coming before 2018. Oh, how wrong I was. Even me, the hater, the pessimist, was way over-optimistic. I knew then, by late 2017, early 2018, that I should cut my losses (in time, not financially, obviously the price was ATH then) and spend my free time elsewhere. All of this is a long winded way of saying is Communities is very important to me, personally, and I'm happy to see it finally launching next week. I don't believe it's ready for production in its current state, but after such a long wait, something is better than nothing, I suppose.
All in all, here's my TL;DR, because this post is way too rambly and I don't expect anyone to read it:
Finally, the elephant in the room - what about STEEM price? No comment. I'll continue shouting, like I have for years, that the inflation must be reduce significantly.
As for me, I'll continue to follow and see how Steem evolves. It's been a helluva ride. I'm going to remain mostly-inactive / sparsely-active, as I've been since 2018, with some bursts of activity like now - so nothing's going to change on that front. I'd love to be more active, if/when the experience improves dramatically.
