Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
In early December I highlighted a bullish scenario for bitcoin in which I argued for a 35k top (which was then fine tuned to 40k well before the actual peak at that level)
As this has been confirmed quite precisely (as well as the anticipated correction that just happened), I think we can somewhat carefully say that the main pattern is identified. This allows us to make further predictions of future price movements (as we can apply this theory to future trends). The main insight comes from this chart:
You can see that I am simply extrapolating a past pattern to the current time. Notice the similarities of these two channels. So where are we now currently?
I would suggest that we are here:
If you look closely, you can see the stark corrections in the past to the lower trend line. If this were to happen BTC would fall to sub 14k levels! However, I don't think that will be quite the case. The main reason is that we have broken out of the former high of 20k which will very likely act as a huge support for the price. In the past this wasn't the case as prices were still near the former high of about 1k$.
But let's get back to the question: Is the "BTC correction over"?
No!
We are in a longer correction as is evident from the chart. The correction to 30k that we just saw is a smaller correction in the bigger one which will be to about 20-25k.
I would propose here two scenarios: One is a longer correction and less deep. The other one is a very fast and deeper correction:
The second scenario is based on the last bullish phase (look at the upper chart again). The first scenario is more in line with the correction of 2019. Which will it be?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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