The confidence of this statement comes from a successful anticipation of market movements from a month ago. In this we argued that bitcoin (when it was sub 20k) could reach a high of 35k (which was then later fine tuned to about 40k). After that there would be a correction to about 25k levels. Let's have another look:
The fine tuned chart is this:
Price can still move towards the bold orange upper resistance trend line, but in my opinion there is almost no chance that prices will continue to climb once we get there. In this last part of the impulse wave sentiment for higher price levels is high, but this is also the time when we ignore the past. And the past is clear: there will be bigger corrections (no matter if the big players/institutions are now involved with bitcoin).
Since September, when price diverged from the support line prices have increased by ~300%, this corresponds to the impulse wave from before:
As you can see a large correction of over 70% ensued. While a correction of this magnitude is very unlikely, I suspect that we will have a correction of about 30-40% to about 25k levels. As you can see this could take a while as it would be at the end of next year when we would reach the support line at that range again. However, it could also mean that a bigger correction could happen: e.g., a flash crash to about 17k in spring followed by a quick recovery.
While I am not sure as to how a correction will unfold exactly, I am convinced that a mid sized one will occur starting as soon as January 2021.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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