This is a bit awkward
Why? Because it's possible that the bottom for BTC.D could already be in. While this would be in line of there having been virtually no ALTcoin season, it is a bit shocking to see the ratio still this high. In fact, it has fallen only around 12% from around 66% to 55% in 2025. This year has been virtually flat. This is the same pattern we have seen in the 2021-2022 phase when we actually had an ALT season, but back then the ratio dropped from around 72% to around 40%. Before then, the ratio dropped even more dramatic.
Overall it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that BTC would remain this dominant over the span of decades. While Bitcoin has been the first chain, it surely lacks a lot of other qualities and quantities other chains have introduced. By competition alone, BTC's share should in principal go down over time. But this is not what we are seeing for the time being.
2 Scenarios
I think there will mainly be two scenarios to watch out for. I honestly don't know which one is more likely to happen, but in line with the thoughts just before, I would find it quite awkward for BTC.D to go significantly up again.
A
the idea here is that dominance will go up to around 64% again thereby hitting the macro resistance in that area. A rejection here would look very similar to 2021 when there was a sort of double peak and a steep drop thereafter. The ratio would go back to around 44% in 2027 and staying in that area for some time.
B
This one just seems a bit more preposterous.Can BTC.D really go back up into the 80s again?! BTC's MC wold have to get absolutely huge since I don't think that ALTs would just crash when BTC goes up over several years. That alone makes this scenario more unlikely imo.
I guess the critical test will be the 64% area. If dominance breaks it, then there is a strong chance for this scenario to transpire. If so, it would possibly leave the door open to a potentially outrageously large correction aka ALT season sometime in 2028-2029.
Conclusion
We shouldn't be fooled by this chart alone when we want to evaluate the potential of ALTs or the performance of BTC. This is, after all, just a ratio between the two. Even in scenario A, we could get a very strong ALT rally when the MC of everything is just going up. I think the bottom line, however, is that the whole market sentiment has shifted more positive again. The chance is high that the valuation of many projects will go up from here.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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