It's always good to look at both extremes as the truth often resides in the middle between the two. That being said, let's see why BTC could fall to ~12k before recovering but also why I am favoring the bullish scenario. The following chart is one of the most simplest charts by just connecting the lows of a cycle on the monthly/weekly chart which gives us trend lines that accurately predicted the lows of the following bear markets. That is, if you look closely, price still fell "a bit" after it hit the trend line, but it was basically the end of the bear market with a largely sideways moving market. But you can also see that for this cycle we get two lines.
This is due to the extreme correction in 2020 when price crashed to ~3k. This gives us two trend lines: one in the monthly chart and one in the weekly chart (there are of course other scales one can look at, but these are the most common one used and therefore the best indicators in my opinion). Essentially what it boils down to is that this ambiguity leaves room for either scenario to play out. I think I have put forward some good reasons for why BTC has completed it's downward movement in the last post, but since this is the bearish post, let's see why BTC could also be heading to about 12k.
There is little doubt that prices could easily go down another 38% from the current 20k levels to meet this lower end of the target. That is quite a big drop still.
While especially the last point is probably the reason why the majority of people are still bearish for BTC I wonder whether the now often proclaimed target of 12k is not a similar mirage as the 100k+ target most analysts predicted for the bull market. In other words, if too many people talk about a target and are setting up trades accordingly the makret usually does the opposite or falls short of that target. We didn't get the 100k for the bull run and so there is a point to be made that we also won't be getting the now often talked about target of 12k. From a fractal point of view BTC has completed it's bear market correction. We could therefore also easily see a reversal to 35k+ in the coming months and probably one more pullback dwon to current levels before again going into the bull market. In either case, the next bull market is probably coming around a lot sooner than most think.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅
⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅
