But I want to highlight a bullish scenario here which in terms of fractal analysis seems more likely to me. Of course 2022 is nothing like 2018 or 2014 when we had the last bull markets. Geopolitically and financially speaking things are a lot more shaky. But many people assume here that the crypto markets are fundamentally linked to the fiat financial markets. I actually think that they are only "mentally" linked and that there is not really any reason for why BTC should tank when the financial markets "crash". Of course we know that there is a strong correlation, but my theory is that this link will sooner or later break. Geopolitically speaking a war, for example, could of course have real impacts on e.g., the infrastructure. But the internet is still very decentralized from a global point of view, so even here I don't necessarily see this as a fundamental issue. The point I guess is, that there can always black swan type events - I am hoping we won't get any of them. 🤞
As pointed out in previous posts, bear markets generally don't last that long. In the following chart you can see the RSI with the red box being the bear market territory. The RSI has been in the box for the 2014/5 bear market for a bit longer than a year and for 2018/9 it was actually just about a half a year! This is much less than what many people think I believe. People are talking about 2 year bear markets when in fact there has never been such a thing. We are now already about 4-5 months into the current bear market, so we could argue that we are perhaps already more than half way through it!
Notice the orange trend lines that we can draw on the monthly chart which have always (!) predicted the bottom of the price for the bear market (as you can see the RSI can however still remain in the bear market territory after that). Unfortunately for this cycle this indicator is a bit ambiguous as we have a whisk down to $~3000 (2020, Corona). But the thicker line is what we get when we connect the trend line to the bottom of the thick column. The thinner line is the bottom of the weekly column. So we get a range for this cycle.
My other argument is that when we look at the price movement of the past cycles we see that price has always dipped under this "orange trend line" then retested it and went lower (but stayed above the previous low) before going ultimately to higher highs. I think this is a big clue that many have not seen. It's completely obvious when you see the pattern.
In other words we are now at the exact point when price has in the past reversed and went upwards. The caveat here is as pointed out before that we have the thinner orange line for this cycle, meaning that we could potentially drop to this line and a bit below it which would indeed be the 13-14k range.
I am proposing here a recovery to about 35-38k for the next months and another final correction/retest of the ~20k area which would then correspond to the thinner orange trend line.
The alternative is that we would go straight down towards this trend line at around 15-16k and possibly dip briefly under it. This would also conclude the bear cycle.
All in all I think I have made a good case here that suggests a fairly soon ending of the bear market with the low of $~17k possibly already having been in.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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