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I have recently read a great post by @dalz featuring data on SPS token for June 2025. This post prompted me to take a look a the price action in SPS token a bit further and do some technical analysis on various timeframes for the token.

SPS Token Supply

Here is a great chart from Dalz post showing historical supply of the SPS token:

What we see here is that we have more than half of the total 3 Billion SPS tokens already in circulation. We have burned 230 Million of SPS tokens in the two small drops that you can see in this chart in 2022 and in April 2025 with the Conclave Arcana event.

We will see the distribution of the token among SPS holders a bit later, but what this makes me think of right away is that we have about half of the tokens in circulation and we need to somehow absorb almost 1.5 Billion more SPS tokens in the Splinterlands ecosystem. That doesn't sound like a trivial task without a lot of new players and SPS holders.

SPS Distribution Among SPS Token Holders

If we take a look at the stats for the SPS token from Splintercards we see that majority of the tokens are actually staked:

1,410 Million Circluating - 963 Million Staked = 447 Million

If we take out 161 Million tokens held in the DAO we are left with about 286 Million tokens in circulation right now. Some of these are locked up in the liquidity pools so there is very little SPS trading on exchanges right now.

What is concerning me is that we have 286 Million or less liquid SPS right now and we need to absorb almost another 1.5 Billion SPS. Where would this SPS go?

Perhaps it will go into staked SPS? Here I find a couple more images from Dalz post very helpful, first here are the top SPS stakers:

This is great that we have @vugtis and @bravetofu staking over 50 million SPS each or around 10% of the SPS tokens that are staked. There are other giant SPS holders like sps-renter, @azircon, @yabapmatt, spswhale, @michealb and others with around ten to twenty million tokens staked. But this is also a major vulnerability of the SPS token. Where are we going to get another bravetofu or vugtis? Or even others close to 10 million SPS staked?

I think another chart from Dalz illustrates this point really well:

While we did manage to hit almost 90% of staked SPS vs liquid SPS around end of 2023, it has proven to be an illusive target ever since with what looks like a major resistance level around 70%

Will we be able to maintain this ratio of staked vs liquid SPS going forward? And if we don't then these tokens will end up on exchanges potentially driving the price of the SPS token even lower.

SPS Historic Price Action and Analysis

Here is the chart of SPS since around October of 2022 and it is not a pretty sight... This weekly chart of SPS against USD reveals a broad, long-term downtrend since late 2022, followed by some cyclical recovery attempts and recent sideways movement.

The chart begins with a sharp and sustained downtrend from around $0.07 down to under $0.01. This reflects a strong bear market in the SPS token, which was driven by some fundamental factors in the Splinterlands ecosystem as well as broader crypto market conditions. This downtrend is characterized by long red candlesticks, showing aggressive selling pressure.

There are several mid-term rallies visible, notably in late 2023, a strong recovery attempt where price surged from about $0.007 to $0.035 (a nearly 5x move). There was another rally from late 2023 to early 2024, peaking around $0.03. However, each rally is followed by sharp corrections, failing to break prior highs, which is a classic sign of lower highs and bearish consolidation.

Since mid-2024, price action shows a more horizontal, range-bound pattern mostly between $0.005 and $0.015. Volume spikes during rallies suggest that some buying interest returns during these periods, but selling overwhelms again after. The most recent candles indicate a slight pullback after a minor peak in early 2025 when we had news of Conclave Arcana coming out.

Chart Patterns

Potential Double Bottom Base: The lows around $0.005 in mid-2024 and again in late 2024 might suggest a double bottom formation, a bullish reversal pattern. However, confirmation would require a strong breakout above resistance levels near $0.015 to $0.02. Will we be able to get there?

Consolidation / Accumulation Zone: The sideways action from mid-2024 onwards suggests consolidation. This often precedes a significant move but does not indicate direction until a breakout or breakdown happens. So we need to push to the two cent area in order to make a significant move higher.

We really need a major marketing push that results in a wave of new players combined with a new capital injection into the Splinterlands ecosystem so that we can push past the two cent price level and ignite a major rally in the SPS token price.