07/10/2018/13:30CET
Crypto markets are lulled into a calmness which is quite strange for followers. What is going on?
Seems that all the excitement, both elation and depression, the extremes of emotions, that were the norm in the crypto investing community, has abandoned us.
It is possible to point to more than 1 traditional fiat currency with higher volatility than #bitcoin!
I have even come stories like this one that claim cryptos are tamed and are now boring!
Think of the idiocy of this...
Imagine seeing into a crystal ball 2 years ago and seeing into the future and reading this from the mainstream media, while #btc trades at 6500 usd !
I have used a click baity thumb on this post not to portend some disastrous turn of events in cryptoland, but just to highlight that the weather is quite calm before a storm arrives.
And TA is indicating something big about to happen!
In somewhere between 1 and 3 weeks we reach an inflection point in a longer term wedge pattern in bitcoin.
Seems we have started already to see a trend of higher lows event though lower highs as well.
The wedge is tightening.
If we draw the lower bound of the wedge as the horizontal like at 6k we only add an extra week to our inflection point.
To corroborate our thesis are a few other indicators...
I am not going to regurgitate the same superlatives that all the other punditry is circulating. I think we all get the idea, something big is shaping up. All I want to show is 2 indicators I am looking at right now The chop and volatility indicators.(see this post for more info on these indicators)
chop
The top is the chop indicator. It is at 61.5, pointing at high odds for a sharp movement shortly. Not as high as they have been in the past, but difficult to ignore in any case.
volatility
This one is dragging at levels we have not had since the end of Aug 2017. Again indicating that odds are good for higher volatility in the future.
traditional
Our traditional financial world is crumbling before our eyes. All we need to do is look at the right places and open our eyes. Oil is going up in price, EM currencies are crashing, US interest rates are rising. Tradewars and currency wars all over the place. All restraint in diplomacy has been abandoned with Trump kicking sand in everyone's faces, and finally some of the other big kids in the sandpit are starting to gang up against a common pain in the arse.
Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Italy, Venezuela, Brazil, Greece, UK(brexit), and the list goes on. So many flashpoints.
Looks like a barn packed to the rafters with dry straw, after a blistering rainless summer. Now the kids have had a great idea: lets play with fireworks!
This has all the makings of a hot winter ahead.
Shit is overdue to hit fans all over the place. I do not wish it, but I do want to not be on the wrong side of the economic fence when it does. There will be no schadenfreude, only chaos.
I think that traditional safe havens will do well. Gold and Silver. Cash as well for a short time, but Crypto is the new contrarian kid on the block. Will be a very interesting case study to see if people see crypto as a safe haven.
After all Bitcoin was born in the smoldering embers of the last crash!
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.