BitConnect loan funds have returned; not doing that again!
A week ago, I closed out my BitConnect account, at a profit. Nowhere near the profit they advertise – but then, I started with Bitcoin, not with dollars.
Final Earnings
I hadn’t checked in a week, so when I did, the Lending Wallet contained my initial $12,430, plus earnings from the prior six days; the total in it was $13,379.65.
Bitcoin was then (a week ago) at $7,359 (and, it’s almost back there now, having visited $5,500 this past week – some volatility!), so I won’t even be able to purchase 2 BTC! I had started this loan with almost 5 BTC – 4.92 and some dust – which was the equivalent of $12,430 when I started the loan, four months ago.
How Much BTC Did It Buy?
Turned out this $13,379.65 bought me 1.82 BTC, which I removed a week ago. So, the initial investment went from 4.92 BTC to 1.82 BTC (a little less, actually, because there was almost a thousand dollars more from the prior week).
So, exactly how many BTC did I remove from BitConnect? I kept a running total, so the previous was 4.62 BTC. Add to that 1.82 BTC (from the previous paragraph), and I have removed 6.44 BTC.
My initial investment was 4.92 BTC. So, I made 1.52 BTC, which is still a decent return (around 30% for 4 months, or 120% annually, without compounding), but nowhere near what was promised. Of course, most people probably invest starting with dollars, rather than starting with BTC. So, let’s do that math.
What If I Had Invested Dollars in BitConnect?
If I had started with dollars, then, assuming I never sold any of the BTC that I took out and sold them right now – the price of 1 BTC is currently (a week ago – I wrote this analysis then, and turned it into a post tonight) $7,325.06, so that times the 6.44 BTC that I removed would be $47,173.39 – a much better return! The initial investment was $12,430, so this would be 379% in four months, or 1,517% annually. Unheard of, and, I expect they’ll fold soon.
I “think” in Bitcoin, now, rather than in “dollars” (which they aren't, any more, they're just pretty pieces of paper, backed up by “faith” in a crumbling system). So for me, if I had started with dollars in the previous paragraph, I would keep the Bitcoin, and end up with the 379% return.
However, many people haven't converted their thinking (perhaps, “yet”?), so they might want to sell the BTC as soon as they've removed it. If that were the case, the return would go down some; I'm not going to calculate all the data points there (they might sell daily; weekly; monthly; or randomly, like I did), but BTC was below $3K when I started, and only recently rose above $7K, so the return would be reduced, if they had sold as soon as they took possession of the BTC.
And, the return would be greater if they had “rolled it forward”, which I never did, so I don't know whether the funds that were “rolled in” would start the 4-month clock over again – or, if the clock would be even longer, since the amount I'd have been “rolling in” would be less than $10k.
What If I Had Invested Dollars in BTC?
Now, what if I had started with dollars, and instead just bought BTC and held it? The price of BTC on the day I started, 2017-07-09, was $2,826.70, according to Coindesk ($2,589.88 according to Coinmarketcap, so let’s do two versions). Today, it’s $7,354.82 at Coindesk (versus $7,352.50 at Coinmarketcap, so they seem to have narrowed in the past four months).
| Coindesk | Coinmarketcap | |
|---|---|---|
| BTC on 2017-07-09 | $2,826.70 | $2,589.88 |
| $12,430 would purchase | 4.39735380 | 4.79945016 |
| BTC on 2017-11-08 | $7,354.82 | $7,352.50 |
| Those BTC now worth in $ | $32,341.75 | $35,287.96 |
| Return in percentage | 260% | 284% |
Interestingly, that amount ($12,430) wouldn't purchase the full amount I started with, 4.92 BTC, using either of the above prices! However, the BTC price wasn't at the above point all day; it fluctuated, so I likely made my investment when it was slightly lower, around $2,526.42.
Conclusion
So, starting with dollars, the past four months would give a great return in Bitcoin, and would be even better with BitConnect.
Starting with BTC, I earned only 30% in the fourth months, versus 260-284% buying BTC starting with dollars, or 379% investing in BitConnect, starting with dollars (and a little less, starting with dollars and cashing out the BTC to dollars as I withdrew it, rather than holding).
It was an interesting test but I have no confidence in their future, so I’ll stick the much-more-secure “hodl” method and keep my coins in my wallet.
In fact, I just purchased a Trezor wallet! It arrived today; looking forward to experimenting with it!
Below are the previous posts I have made about BitConnect; I will not be making any more. (About BitConnect, that is! :) )
Enjoy!
Previous Posts
Starting with the oldest:
The above was flagged, my first flag, and I didn’t understand it; I do now, it was because I had posted an “affiliate link.” Don’t do that. :)
Note that in the above, 
What a stupid, grade-school-level, “Office Space”-style programming error! At least they came back up; it was around the time that BTC-e was taken down, and Poloniex went down for a day or two as well. Was considering whether I could wear a barrel for clothing. :)
https://steemit.com/life/@libertyteeth/bitconnect-question-has-anybody-seen-the-bot-s-trades
BitConnect purports to have written a “trading bot” which earns 2% daily. That’s 730% in a year, without compounding. If they can do that, why let others get in on the action? I mean, really, why let anybody else in? Reminds me a little of the movie “Limitless” – the guy had a great stock trading ability, but went to a loan shark because he “needed to earn faster.” That was one of the flaws in the movie, but, the evil guy was necessary for the “heroic” ending. Anyway, this is one red flag, and a huge one, which should have stopped me but Craig Grant’s promotion of it hooked me.
This is the post where I shared how I figured out why they’re profitable; that was three months ago, and I expected not to earn nearly as much as they were advertising. And, I was right. Heh, a chuckle at my invention, “petro-terror-notes.” :) (It’s neat to re-read what I’ve written; it sounds like something I’d say, but I don’t much at all remember writing it, thanks to these concussions I’m recovering from.)
This was when they were down, I mentioned above. And, my apologies to 
https://steemit.com/life/@libertyteeth/bitconnect-progress-report
That was the last post I had done on BitConnect, three months ago as well, prior to this one.
That's it! Well, since we're supposed to have a thumbnail, here's an image I painted using the same brush as the "Splatterpaint Progression" that I included in this other post, when I announced the winners of my SteemVoter contest:
This one's titled "Dimensional Splatterpaint":