This is , in my opinion a great insight, of future of etherium.. Are there really cryptos that are going to compet with etherium in near future? .. Listen to this guy, he has huge axpiriance of working with banks as well as with criptos..
"how I see the weird world of INTERNET MONEY-
so, when looking 4000 X or greater opportunities , I'm really looking for a certain shape of the opportunity.First as we talked about in the last video, which you could find here, I'm looking for things that are eating a valuable aspect of human nature.
Next what I look for is the potential for super dominance. What is super dominance? It's when first place is always outpacing second place and second place can never catch up. I believe that protocols that have super dominance give
me the greatest chance of finding thousand x or greater returns. one hopeful historical example of super dominance is this thing called tcp/ip. It's the foundation of the entire internet. it was created by a bunch of smartypants in the 70s. tcp/ip is a really big deal. it's the plumbing for the internet .without it ,you wouldn't be able to watch this. now here's the funny thing is ,it wasn't clear that tcp/ip would be the foundational protocol of the internet. in fact there was competition and even though the competition looked better on paper, it looked to be the superior protocol and it looked like tcp/ip wasn't really all that great, tcp/ip won and became super dominant and we're gonna teach you why they won, by the end of this video, so pay attention. so you might be asking Cedric how in the world do you evaluate if something has the potential for super dominance?
that's a good question by the way, I do two things first I look at Metcalfe's law and - I look at competition. let's start with
met cats law .all of these internet money protocols they're just networks. Metcalfe's law is a good way to understand how the value of a network grows .so, Robert Metcalfe is this OG from back in the day in computer land and he made this way to connect computers. and he had to figure out how to tell a compelling story about why connecting computers was valuable, so what he did is he came up with this graph, where he basically said look if you just have one computer with this connection, not very valuable, you have two computers that are connected, becomes more valuable. as you connect each new computer, the value of all of these connected computers goes up. right, this is his pitch to companies that might buy his computer connection bid .so, he made this graph. and this graph helped him
sell a whole bunch of these network connections, I believe they're called Ethernet connections. the really crazy thing about this is even though he just kind of like made this to express this idea, it has been bizarrely accurate at
predicting, how networks grow in value and that there is a point, at which the
value of the network is becoming more valuable, than the cost of onboarding
each new member to the network .now this we believe applies to all of technology,
and especially internet money protocols. so here's a graph, now the most important
thing to pay attention to on this graph is the critical mass crossover point.
this is where the value of the network is growing more than the cost of
onboarding each new user. and the reason that this point is so important, is that
the first protocol to pass this point in theory, the second place just may never
be able to catch up to them, because this is the point that precedes
explosive growth .if this is true, it means that the first protocol eating a
certain aspect of human nature, once it crosses that point, it looks like it wins
and that any competing protocols won't be able to catch up. so let's go back to
our story, even though tcp/ip the, the plumbing for the internet that we use today that you're using
watch this video, even though tcp/ip wasn't as good ,as competing protocols,
they've meaning it didn't look as good on paper ,didn't have all the feature,s
all the bells and whistles, because it got to that critical mass crossover point first it won. and that's the point.
you're not looking for the thing that's the most impressive on paper ,you're
looking for the thing that gets adopted by enough of the network, that it crosses
that tipping point first. now, network growth, also called Network effects are exaggerated by platforms .and today
there's only one platform in internet money'll and that's really operating at
any kind of scale -that's Etherium. now there are some things, that look like
they might be able to perform orders of magnitude better on some special way,
like maybe hash graph, maybe I'm not saying it will, it's not endorsement,
maybe a rootstock again not an endorsement, just just a maybe, but for the most part these aetherium killers
are coming out they just don't really look like they have a chance, because
aetherium is such a dominant frontrunner. just like tcp/ip the second thing I look
for in a protocol ,that has the potential for super dominance is competition. or,
really a lack of competition ,because I don't like competition .in order for an
internet protocol to really win, I wanted to cross the critical mass crossover point first.
now the reason is, that once a protocol has crossed that point ,it will become
too expensive for competitors to catch up with them. we don't like competition,
because competitors are eating your network effects and you need those
Network effects. so, you remember tcp/ip, now here's why I would not have bet
against tcp/ip because back in the day when it had competitors what the
competitors didn't appreciate was that tcp/ip was already winning Network
effects. and this means that it was going to be really hard for a competing
protocol to get the needed network effects to cross that critical mass
crossover point. you can think about this like going to a potluck you don't want
to come to a potluck 10 hours late when all the good stuffs already been eaten,
and all that's left is scraps. whichever internet Bunny
gets across that point first, likely wins. I want to find the dominant frontrunner,
because they are most likely to cross that point first. if a protocol has been
dominant ,for some time it's really unlikely that a new protocol will be
able to catch up .because with new protocols they haven't hit the
break-even point yet .so, each new network participant is only increasing the value
a little bit as opposed to a protocol that's been around for a while, where
each new user is increasing the value by a lot .and remember this should takes a
long time we're talking decades, it's very unlikely, that's something that's
only been around for one year is going to take over something that's been
around and dominating Network effects for ten years. so, if you're someone who's
looking for the next aetherium killer something that's trying to eat contracts
distributed if-then statements the thing is it has to be orders of magnitude
better, at some essential part of what it does for me to even take it seriously,
because it's so hard to catch up with and beat a dominant frontrunner. okay,
this is the part where you take action, open up your portfolio now the first
protocol in your portfolio here's the question, is this the dominant
frontrunner eating some valuable aspect of human nature? or is there already a
dominant frontrunner ? are you second, third, fourth place etc .be wary of anything trying to be the next blank,
whether it's trying to be the next etheorem, the next Bitcoin, the next whatever. do your research and let me know in the comments below if you found a protocol that has the potential for super dominance.
