I was not surprised to see BTC drop to 88k from 96k or so and took the alts dumping too. Yesterday was one of the bloodiest days in almost a year.
Of course, I knew this was coming, but I expected a small pump before the massive dump, which I anticipated would occur in the first week of March.
I was wrong!, but guess what? 90% of those who predicted something completely different were also wrong. I'm not talking about random FUDsters, I mean people who are vested in the game and knows their onions. So if they could be wrong, then who am I?
The market has behaved erratically in the short run, with the last two to three months being the most unpredictable, which I believe correlates with history.
The only distinction is in the type of black swan events. COVID, which was global, occurred in 2020. In 2022, FTX collapsed. These are the black swan events.
So, what else?
Oh, BTC broke its previous all-time high prior to the halving, which was another difference. Okay, we also had a supposed crypto president, which we thought was bullish, but guess what?
He went on to launch a meme coin alongside his wife's. Okay, something else: there are now more memes and shitcoins on the market, and what else? People are more bearish this cycle than the last.
Everything has happened differently, especially with timing and degree, and this is probably because the dynamics is changing, but a rich part of the history will still correlate to some extent.
This cycle may have been brutally surprising, but history at least correlates with what is currently happening at a 70% level, which is still reasonable.
You will not believe what is going on on CT; the space is complete chaos. If you are the type who gets easily depressed, I recommend you stay away. 90% of the people there are clueless, with only baseless thoughts, no knowledge of anything, and constant FUD because their bags are down.
The worst are the supposed influencers who made a fortune during the previous cycle. You'd have expected them to be sensible since they've made some money off of crypto in the past,
but guess what? These people are on tweeting 99% FUD and making their followers to panic sell
Shouldn't You Be Learning?
No one is taking lesson notes or paying attention to technical analysis; it is just FUD for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. I am curious how people will grow if they do not learn.
This cycle is the perfect learning curve for people who haven't got a clue, these experiences will come in handy for them in the next cycle, but guess what? They are not taking notes, but rather wailing and crying and asking influencers whether they should sell or hold.
Granted, there are a few reasonable people attempting to educate the masses, but it is difficult to learn when bags are down and the market is red; what a distraction!
It is like advising someone who is in love or has recently been heartbroken. Unless you pump their bags, you are speaking nonsense.
Break Or Make
If you are out there and the market is not going as planned, you are not alone. Almost everyone has gotten their short-term predictions completely wrong. This does not imply that we are doomed or that they are stupid; it is simply a result of market dynamics.
This is the time when you will enjoy being a no-coiner, but the disadvantage is that they do not expect any market changes anytime soon. Hold tight; the storm may be over soon.
Interested in some more of my works
Interested in some more of my works
