As I post this, it will soon will be Election Day across the United States. For those who have not yet cast a ballot by mail, and still intend to play a role in the biennial federal charade, get ready to vote because it's an even more important election than the last one! I anticipate a high probability the Democrats will win a majority in Congress for many reasons, including (but not limited to):
- The stock and commodities markets have been in chaos for years;
- The US is now in its ninth month of an undeclared war with Iran;
- Venezuela has had another undeclared "regime change" war early this year where the status quo regime is largely left in place aside from its former dictator;
- The navy has been continually sinking alleged drug smuggling boats in foreign and international waters far from the US for well over a year now in connection to the war above;
- The national debt of the United States broke the $40 trillion mark, over four times what it was just 20 years ago;
- Military spending is now proposed at $1.5 trillion, the highest ever;
- The Global War on Terror has been twenty-five years of spending and intervention abroad with real bloodshed and destruction and dubious change;
- Israel remains at war with the Gaza population as a whole, and has bombed the strip almost entirely to rubble;
- The war between Russia and Ukraine drags on almost two years after Trump repeatedly promised it would end on his first day;
- The defunct Department of Government Efficiency utterly failed except in annoying the left.
I'm turning [number redacted] years old this month, and I have been politically aware since Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in 1992 when I was only [much smaller number also redacted]. Power has shifted from (D) to (R) and back again several times before, with big changes in rhetoric and changes to a few major surface issues, but no real progress toward liberty.
Broken Promises
Republicans have failed to deliver on almost all of their stated principles despite holding the majority in all three branches of government for two years now. Gun control thankfully slipped again slightly with the elimination of taxes on short-barrelled rifles and shotguns (SBR/SBS) and suppressors/silencers, but the underlying legislation has not been repealed.
Epstein? Who is that? What Epstein files? Stop asking for more Epstein data! We've totally released everything long ago, nothing to see here, move along!
No new wars except for bombing Iran in 2025, sinking random boats abroad, replacing the dictator of Venezuela with his entire prior administration moving up a seat in power, spending over 8 months so far fighting a war against Iran again in 2026, and whatever else flew under the radar. No wars though!
The massive pork-filled Big Beautiful Bill was passed with much fanfare by proud Republicans eager to spend money others had earned. Tariffs were used not for revenue, but for knee-jerk economic warfare, and changed at a moment's notice according to the whims of the President alone. Meanwhile, individual taxes largely remain unchanged, but tips and overtime are exempt now. Yay? Instead of standing for small government and limited federal power, the Republicans just spent like there was no tomorrow.
Their tomorrow is likely here today.
Lame Ducks
If the Democrats win, I expect an almost immediate round of impeachment efforts to resume, but I cannot guess how they will fare, or whether they will address real root issues. After all, they don't dare raise issues they cheered under Biden and Obama, right?
After the election recess, I hope Thomas Massie of Kentucky, perhaps the last Congressman I can respect, can still pass some lame duck legislation, including the impeachment of present Secretary of War Pete Hegseth for his abject failure to adhere to his oath of office, and another effort to actually do what Trump campaigned on regarding the Epstein case in legal limbo two years later.
Rumors persist that Trump will run for a third term despite a constitutional amendment prohibiting it, but I am more concerned he will use his own lame duck term for now to push aside even more Constitutional prohibitions than he already has. My pessimism has thus far proven too accurate for comfort. I hesitate to guess what will happen over the next two years. Whether the Democrats win or not, I expect him to bully his way as much as he possibly can.
Financial Crisis
Inflation has been a burden for over a century now. The United States Dollar has plummeted in value. Debt has ballooned. The deficit has exploded. Even if we set aside the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, pointless conflicts have wreaked havoc since before even the oldest of the Zoomer generation properly learned to read and write, much less knew what was going on in the wider world.
I do not know whether the housing market bubble will burst again like it did almost 20 years ago, or be continually inflated by the Federal Reserve as it tries to balance debt and spending burdens for another several years, but the dollar is not a good store of value when they can't even restrict themselves to a "modest" 2% CPI inflation rate every year.
Image credit: Wikimedia, data normalized with 1982-84 as 100
The relative prosperity of the 90s is a distant memory even for us Millennials, and it feels like technological progress has turned from bringing us prosperity to signing us all into lifetime subscriptions for everything while demanding we be connected 24/7. Sure, wages went up, but basic needs seem to cost far more than any wage growth has matched. The cost of homes, medical insurance, food, and even used cars from the 80s through the early 2000s have exploded.
Now we have self-appointed corporate "leaders" criticizing us for daring to want computer parts they "need" for their generative A.I. (and surveillance) data center boom. Entirely computer-generated slop has displaced traditional human-generated slop, and the sheer quantity of it is harming genuine human creators, too.
The stock market is a mess. The numbers look good enough thanks in part to the A.I. bubble and inflation for now, but it may finally be cracking as debt grows. A.I. profit forecasts are failing to emerge so far. The wider economy is on unstable ground as well. Consumer debt is reaching new highs. As noted earlier, federal debt continues to grow. The global petrochemical industry is still in turmoil, and local gasoline prices remain close to double what they were near the start of the year before this new war, with diesel trending worse.
Precious metals have fallen for the last few months after reaching record highs, but I hesitate to guess what will happen post-election. I have long-term expectations of success for precious metals and crypto as the spending and debt continue their inexorable climb. Keep an eye on Kitco, Money Metals, or other sites for long- and short-term data. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and even HIVE with our record low prices this year offer a better long-term value than the USD. Whatever the outcome tonight, debt will grow and the dollar will fall.
I encourage you all to insulate yourselves from the dollar (or your national equivalent fiat) however you can. Don't abandon your government currencies entirely, but save outside the system to a degree. We know the systems around us are crumbling, and we do not know how deep the rot goes. The global system may be on the brink of catastrophic disaster, or just continuing to crumble slowly, but I doubt any trends will reverse toward prosperity and peace.
Police Misconduct
2026 has been so full of insanity that I feel like an entire decade has passed, and I am forgetting the individual issues as badly as 2020 with COVID lockdowns. Remember that? Barely over six years ago, yet it feels like an eternity now. Biden was awful, but it all began under Trump. Lockdowns, Operation Warp Speed, and more started with him. The police were not armed with Flock surveillance yet then, but now they have it for whatever comes next.
ICE continues to act out of control. So much has happened this year that otherwise-major issues seem to have slipped through the cracks. Renée Good, Alex Pretti, and others were executed in public while exercising their rights inside the United States by federal agents acting outside even the scope of their dubious authority.
Flock Safety and other "automated license plate reader" companies continue to expand their surveillance camera networks while trying to restrict public access to their locations even as they insist we have no expectation of privacy in public. Backlash has resulted in some jurisdictions cancelling their contracts and covering or removing cameras in recent months, but this battle is far from over. The ongoing debate will continue, and I fear liberty will be forced once again to "compromise" with their authoritarian "safety" systems.
Every single trespass the Republicans supported will be repurposed for the Democrats should they gain full governmental power in 2028, and suddenly the Republicans will ask us to forgive their trespasses as they "stand up to tyranny" when they are no longer the tyrants? Riiiiiight... Just like the Democrats are offended now, but were full steam ahead under Biden.
Conclusion?
Perhaps the US election is the wrong turning point, but we are arguably the sole global superpower now despite our internal crises. Our politics affect the wider world even as all nations including our own grind apart. Will the new government manage to find a way to "grow past the debt," either by inflating the money supply to oblivion, or finding a real foundation in 2027? I know my own instincts lean fairly pessimistic, so keep that in mind, but I doubt we are on the brink of a renaissance. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. War is likely to expand. Debt and inflation will grow. The market will ebb and flow, but I cannot say where or how much. Hard assets are where real value can be found long-term. Build your local community and let national or international politics do what they will. Our votes do not matter in the end, because politics are a distraction, but our relationships and resources give us hope for resilience and prosperity.
If you're not on Hive yet, I invite you to join through InLeo or PeakD. If you use either of my referral links, I'll even try to delegate some Hive Power to help you get started.