I've had time now for a posting palate cleanser, but it's finally time for a follow-up to Trump: A Best-Case Scenario. While I still think the average Democrat has a mental straw man in place of a real understanding of Republican ideology as a whole, to say nothing of the distinctions between factions within the party, there is definitely room for real concerns.
I don't think Trump will usher in A Handmaid's Tale of theocratic patriarchy, and the Supreme Court decision to reverse Roe v. Wade and send the abortion issue to the states was the better decision under Constitutional authority, but there is definitely a faction of conservatives who do believe women need to be put in their place as subservient to men in society. It isn't the pervasive ideology the Democrats believe, but this small faction may get extremely loud and at least make encroachments against the real rights of women in some parts of the country. Mormon-dominated Utah and southern Idaho come to mind.
Rather than seek to crush Israel, I am concerned Trump will advocate literal genocide against the Palestinians. He already moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in his last term. He also assassinated an Iranian general duriing his last days in office, and Iran has been escalating military tensions with Israel already, creating a very dangerous simmering violence which could boil over into disaster for the Israeli citizenry if this explodes into real warfare. Trump could be far more of an indirect existential threat to Israel because of his shoot-from-the-hip jingoism than due to any perceived animosity of an alleged fascist and racist, and such a war could explode far beyond the confines of the middle east.
Trump was rightfully concerned about Ukrainian government corruption, and the Biden family has been undeniably involved in Ukrainian corporate and political interests. The Trump administration might go beyond pursuing peace in Ukraine and enact punitive terms in Russia's favor. Trump wants to make a deal, not necessarily to find a mutually-acceptable long-term peace. On the other hand, if Putin won't do what Trump wants, Trump's ego could demand escalation into open conflict with Russia. Neither outcome would be good, and nuclear war is not off the table. Needless to say, that would be BAD.
Trump talked the talk in his bid to gain support from libertarian-leaning Americans, and the Libertarian Party's vote percentage was even lower than their usual insignificant level, so it may have worked to help Trump eke out his win. Now Trump needs to keep a lot of promises, including freeing Ross Ulbricht, fully pardoning Assange and Snowden, easing regulation on emerging technologies like cryptocurrency, eliminating taxes on tips (and ideally wages), and reducing the arbitrary politically-motivated mandates and regulations which serve more to promote special interests than benefit the consumers and workers. Unfortunately, not only his keeping such promises not guaranteed, we also stand on the brink of economic disaster thanks to inflation, debt (public and consumer alike), an inverted yield curve, and massive supply chain disruptions. Replacing income taxes with tariffs will add even more instability to the economy as we try to rebuild trade in a post-pandemic policy world.
Trump also has his own authoritarian plans in response to immigration concerns which could expand abuses within and beyond the "constitution-free zone" of 100 miles inside the US borders. Escalations in police actions against minority communities, demands for citizenship papers, and random raids of workplaces or homes could escalate. The War on Drugs has already made the US a police state with one of the highest incarceration rates in the world. Border walls and "your papers please" signal further descent into real tyranny.
I don't think this will all come to pass, but these are among the warning signs all Americans and foreign observers need to watch for in order to decide how to respond to potential escalations in global tension and threats to their liberty.
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