HODL your horses! Crypto is still in its infancy. A lot of you Steemians have been here for awhile and are YUGE believers of crypto, so this might not be new info/speculation for you, but this might be useful for a lot of new guys/girls. The term "Bubble" is being put out there everyday and I wanted to talk about it. But first check out this awesome video :
This is just my own opinion and I can easily be wrong, but I will show you how I make sense of all this...
I will start out with the most recent badmouthing.
I do not know if Mark Cuban's tweet is the reason for this Short term top
OR if it is because it just moved 1000+ points from the low wick on that green arrow without making any big pull back
OR if this is just the 3000 psychological barrier resistance.
It is probably a combination of all three, but Mark Cuban and other popular business professionals that are showed on TV are all wrong
In fact they were wrong 129 times + and counting: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/they-tried-kill-bitcoin-129-times-each-time-it-came-back-even-stronger
One day they might get it right when they keep calling it a bubble pop every 100 points up, but that doesn't count and we will all be very well off by then =)
Once again this is just my personal beliefs. My parents came to the US and barely knew English let alone technology and culture etc here. But they still knew about stocks at the dotcom era and invested in internet stocks. They also told me all their friends who were also immigrants doing the exact same thing. My dad told me it took roughly 1 year and a half before that bubble popped and he lost all his money... So my first point is that someone who should be one of the last people to catch on to a trend (my parents) was able to get involved for a year plus before it died. Crypto has definitely not gotten to that point yet. Majority of the population have not heard about it yet, but just seems that way due to the accelerated rate of people learning about it. (
Here is a very rough estimate... in 2014 there is about 1 million wallet user count divided by 7.3 billion people population = .0136%
Now in 2017 there is about 14 million wallet users/ 7.3 billion people = .19%
There are obviously people who know about it and do not make a wallet, but this paints a picture of how little this new technology is adopted so far.
Another inference I want to make is that in a bubble everyone is on the same side (to dah MOON). Everyone knew about internet stocks and everyone believed it was a long and nothing else. Here in crypto world, few people know about it and many of the few believe this is a fad,scam, and at the end of a bubble. So the dotcom bubble sentiment vs crypto sentiment is not equal.
Not sure if this is exactly how it works, but how I see it is that the valuations back in the dotcom bubble was centralized and the massive profits were mainly in just a few people. The profits in crypto are greatly spread throughout the world. The values of a decentralized asset should have a higher potential/price ceiling than one centralized company.
Comparing the dotcom bubble to crypto is like comparing apples to oranges since one is centralized vs one is decentralized... BUT lets just compare it anyways. According to this : http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2000/11/09/technology/overview/ , the peak of the dotcom market cap was $2.94 trillion and then it crashes to $1.193 trillion. The current total marketcap of crypto is around 100 billion. So that valuation is nowhere close to even the LOWS of the dotcom bubble crash. Next point will be the value of dollars, our dollars were worth a lot more back . According to http://www.in2013dollars.com/2000-dollars-in-2017?amount=1, "The "purchasing power" of $1 from 2000 is $1.42 in 2017" Now we multiply just the peak and low of the dotcom bubble market caps -> Peak = $4.17(2.941.42) trillion and the Low = $1.69 (1.1931.42) trillion.
If crypto can provide the technological revolution that the internet has done we can estimate 40x returns from current crypto market cap levels. There will obviously be SOOO many more catalysts that will affect the future, but I just wanted to share my bigger picture idea. Also definitely believe the stock market that has also been in a long stretched bubble will pop in the near future. During the 2008 market crash crisis, cryptocurrency was not around to be played with. Asset managers and people alike rushed to safe havens. The next stock market crash might have that extra money flowing and experimenting with crypto.
The concerns of a crypto bubble definitely has merit. A lot of people are clueless and are putting money with no due diligence and only emotions/fomo. Right now with the ICO craze it is really quite absurd and a lot of these sh!tcoins will die and so will a lot of ICOs. You just have to be smart, careful, and patient with your conviction on the sound projects you believe in. Risk/Reward in this market is absolutely beautiful so take a swing with what you can afford to risk.
I spent a lot of time and thought into this post, I hope you all enjoyed this.
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THANKS!
