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I saw on Reddit a post by some guy who said he’d bought BTC because Redditors told him that there would be a bull run after the halving and it could make him rich. He said all he had been waiting for was the day of the halving when the bull run would immediately start and he could achieve his dreams of wealth. So the halving happened but instead of a bull run there’s been nothing but crash after crash. Now he’s threatening to sue those Redditors and saying he’ll sell all his BTC before it’s completely worthless. So, was this whole halving thing a scam? What made this guy think that there will be a bull run immediately after the halving? Let's find out.
First of, let's examine the trends in prices and shifts in the market after the past two previous Bitcoin halvings in 2016 and 2020. Evaluating what normally happens following past occurrences can serve as a good background to respond to different claims like that made by a Redditor about the latest April 2024 halving.
Here is what happened after the last two halvings:
The BTC halving in 2016 came about on July 9. In mid-June of that year, prices went up from roughly $430 at the start in January to almost $700. However, weeks after this event, it fell back below $600 in a sudden crash. It was not until December that year when an extended bull run began with prices exceeding $1000 by January 2017.
2020 halving also saw a similar trend where BTC prices surged over 50% before the halving day on May 11th. It increases from around $7,500 to over $10,000. But within one month later it lost more than a quarter dropping back under $8k for some time until significant growth resumed in November when price triples within few months
In both cases, it didn’t look like a typical direct bull run followed the halvings as alleged by the Redditor. Instead, prior halvings shown drops in immediately after the events before entering into later major growth stages. But of course, we can't use past performance to predict future results. Based on this historical behavior, it seems like this reddit guy was wrongly informed, or fell for the hype.
Looking at previous halving events, we can see that what the typical market does after the halving doesn't match up with the immediate gains they were promised. But he may not be alone in this expectation; in fact it appears as though many more people got caught up in hype and promises made.
Every time the halving approaches, many people pour money into BTC hoping for an unprecedented price increase to be sparked off. And that’s not hard to understand because with each event there are fewer new coins created when adoption levels are rising, so scarcity should logically drive up value.
However what people quickly forget is that markets are complex systems impacted by countless factors. Even an external condition like politics may temporarily cause volatility or cause a pull back while technical mechanisms create scarcities through halvings.
So, it happens that many newcomers into this space are caught up in the excitement only to be let down when they realize what is happening is not what they expected. Although the fact that crypto investment is risky, certain people seem to give newbies an impression that history cannot prove.
It is justifiable for innocent beginners to believe in guaranteed profits. I mean, who wouldn’t want a risk-free way of becoming rich? However, crypto has no shortcuts, you have to know how it works and all its risks if you want to succeed.
In view of this, how should we as a community enlighten those who are beginning to learn about crypto? Hype may drive adoption temporarily but also leave many people feeling deceived after seeing no results. Such negative attitudes hinder growth over time.
To sum up my argument: yes; hype around halving events does drive short-term growth but an unhealthy obsession with guaranteed profit will only make people feel cheated. The Redditor’s story is a good example because market forces can do anything at any time regardless of what anyone says.
A community should try to teach newcomers about the fundamentals of crypto and at the same time set realistic expectations regarding its volatility and market movement. The most important thing is to acknowledge that we are supposed to introduce people into this new space carefully. Instead of making promises which cannot be fulfilled, our task should involve showing them everything they need to know in order for their decisions not become ill-informed ones. It is only through creating this kind of balance between education and checks against unreality that can help users gain real power within the community over time.
