You know that feeling you have when you sleep in too long and now you're ironically tired because you rested too much? Can't stay in bed can't get out of bed! That's how I'm feeling right now with this multiple-month break I just took from blogging. Woof! Oh well I'm back now and there are clearly many things to discuss so let's get to business.
Financially I've been in the process of selling off crypto to pay back the credit card debt I've been living off of; going long by proxy for the last six months. Certainly this strategy did not work nearly as well as I was hoping it would, as summer has not performed well enough to justify the action in retrospect. Luckily it's far better than suffering an actual loss, but still disappointing nonetheless.
The pump in the LEO token allowed me to take a few thousand dollars of gains on that run up, but most of my stack was powered up so I didn't really have the option to sell more. This was a blunder seeing as LEO has no inflation anymore; there's really no reason to have it powered up at all (unless you want it locked so it can be recovered if your active key is compromised).
I just took a look at a few of the top payouts on the inleo website and they're earning like 0.01 LEO in rewards. End of an era. I guess this means I can run it back and start publishing all my posts on PEAKD without missing out on the financial reward that LEO was but no longer is offering. Honestly I view that as an upgrade because I was always writing my posts on PEAKED and transferring them over to leo because I enjoy the UI of PEAKED for various random reasons. That habit probably started out from necessity (like back in the day LEO saving drafts was bugged and I lost a post I had just written) and I just kept it going from sheer momentum.
Clearly I haven't been keeping up on current events because I also heard a rumor that LEO isn't even officially a token on Hive anymore, but rather more of a wrapped token on Hive with the official token on Arbitrum. Not sure if that logic makes sense considering 
The chart hints at many interesting developments since last I commented on it. First off every single time a significant line has crossed the $100k threshold Bitcoin has responded quite positively, with spikes occurring simultaneously on the trendline, MA(100), and MA(200) crosses above $100k (orange circles on my chart). The fact that Bitcoin now has an average above $100k over the last 200 days is quite impressive, although I will admit that what we are seeing now is not nearly as good as I was predicting it would be months ago.
Today we are dealing with a light death-cross and soft breakdown of the trendline. The only way I can interpret this is that September is coming. Sell-in-May-and-Go-Away vibes are coming full circle, and I suspect that next month will contain a very annoying correction. I feel like the obvious target is one last full retest of $100k to completely solidify the unit-bias level before higher.
Of course there's always a lot of copium floating around during times like these. The usual suspects are begging daddy government to make number go up once again with cuts to the FED fund rate. I'm seeing headlines like, "75% chance of rate cut in September". This is noise to be honest. I'm done worrying about what the FED will or will not do. Bitcoin moves ten times faster than all the other markets combined.
As a reminder I'll have to reiterate that if September ends up being a really good month for crypto this is a huge red flag in my analysis. If you recall even last year when September was green on the monthly candle people were will freaking out with their it's-so-over vibes at the beginning of the month when it was slightly in the red. Actually I made a few thousand dollars longing that FUD so hopefully we get a repeat of sentiment this year.
Realistically as long as the 200 daily-moving-average keeps going up slowly and to the right I'm not worried about a bear market starting. Those happen after peak FOMO, a thing which we rarely see these days because the greater economy has been in such dire straights for so many years in a row. Everyone is fretting about a Black Swan that never arrives; the market ascends a wall of worry, as they say.
Unfortunately I have been cannibalizing my gambling bankroll on the exchanges to pay my bills, which again is annoying but was always the plan... and I have learned I need to stick to my plans or I always regret my lack of discipline. This time it's a bit easier to force because all signs point to a breakdown, and I'm quite over paying 30% APR on loan shark credit cards.
The back to school vibes are here and my blog will continue business as usual. It's quite unclear how much longer this "bull run" will last (for Bitcoin anyway) but as long as we don't see any irrational blow-off tops I'm not worried. The alts continue to struggle-bus but at this point I suppose that's just the name of the game.
