Don't have time to write up a full post but I felt the need to give a quick update with BIP-110 softfork because it "activated" today... and by activate I mean it was an abysmal failure and will likely be declared dead very soon. With less than 3% of Bitcoin miners "flipping the bit" in support of the softfork it would take over a year for there to be a difficulty adjustment. They'll be lucky if they produce a block every 6 hours.
This comes as no surprise except to all the BIP-110 supporters that have been blatantly lied to over and over again over the last few months. They were told that all the miners would flip right at the last second because that's what the "theory" and "incentives" would dictate. Of course this did not happen, and many on the losing side already find themselves completely disillusioned and stunned; posting nonsense like Bitcoin is now captured and 100% centralized because the network didn't go their way. "I'm sorry Satoshi: We Failed You". Very dramatic stuff.
The crazy thing is that a couple weeks ago it would have been unthinkable to BIP-110 supporters that a hardfork was necessary. They were conditioned to have been on the winning side for so long that it wasn't even a consideration. Well the goal-post there has moved very quickly and not only are they talking about a hardfork like Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin Satoshi Vision, but also they are saying that they are going to change the mining algorithm entirely to quote, "Kick the bad acting miners off the network." This is the nuclear option, and way more cult members are accepting this new narrative than I thought possible. I guess I shouldn't be surprised considering the zealousness of this fractured cult at the center of BTC.
The interesting thing about this move is that it's riddled with more lies and half-truths. The narrative being that forking without a POW change is somehow impossible even though that's exactly what BCH and BSV did. They both use SHA-256. I guess BIP-110 has so little support that even using the same algo is untenable... or they figure that BTC miners will actually attack them unlike the last 2 major forks.
The trap is set. The people in charge of BIP-110 have convinced a good-sized faction of hardcore zealous Bitcoiner cultists that the only way forward is a hardfork. And what does every cult leader do before peacing out into obscurity? That's right! They have to sell out their following and extract every last dollar they can from them. Thus far this group is bleeding users, but much slower than expected. There's still a large number of them who believe that they need to "save Bitcoin" and "protect the children". Those narratives are going a long way to keep this pointless fight going. The momentum for a new hardfork definitively exists at this point. I'd say it's happening with at least 90% certainty at this point, whereas a couple of weeks ago it was more like a coin flip.
I have no idea how Luke Dashjr and his crew are going to extract wealth from their followers, but certainly it will be much easier than extracting wealth from an actual cult because thus far all these people control actual Bitcoin. Will he try to justify confiscating coins? Will he somehow premine blocks on the new POW chain before other people have a chance? No idea how they are going to do it but I guarantee there will be an attempt.
As much as I am not loving this situation I feel like I personally have to gamble on it. I simply have too much "insider" information. A new coin like this is almost certainly going to get a lot of attention in the immediate short term and will slowly fade to black just like all the other BTC hardforks. How they are going to spin being "the real Bitcoin" when they completely change the POW algorithm is beyond me. It really is like watching a religion sprout up out of the grass. "We are the real deal and everyone else is fake." Same story, different dimension.
Well this is all pretty weird but also going exactly the way I said it would. Still weird though. This is definitely a situation anyone with BTC should be paying attention to because it could mean a free airdrop of a coin whose price is being defended by hardcore OG Bitcoiners. Seeing this all play out at the tail end of a bear market is certainly a unique situation. More on this as it unfolds.
