It's been exactly a month since my last post so I figure I'm well past due to poke my head up and say something. Logged into the Crypto Twitters to see that sentiment is as low as ever. No surprises there too be fair. Crypto bear markets aren't exactly known for their kind and gentle landings. It seems that the summertime sadness is contagious!
At this point I'm glad it's worked out the way it has (for Bitcoin anyway). There have been very few surprises. There is almost no deviation. Once again another cycle has come and gone, and once again everyone was convinced that "this time was different". To an extent they are all a little different but it would seem that the main plot points remain intact: 2026 was indeed the bear market year as edicted predicted (along with all the other cycle enjoyoooors). Certainly not out of the woods but the light at the end of Tunnel Bear continues to brighten.
It seems that AI may have taken a bit of crypto's thunder this time around. Every time I take a peak at what's being made devs are blown away by what AI generative coding can accomplish in such a short amount of time. Certainly there are many uses for AI these days but the coding side of these things seems to be explosively out of control. The crazy thing is that the models seem to improve so quickly that it's hard to even know what kind of end products we are going to see get made over the next few years. Very strange to see the models improve faster that devs can even capitalize on the new tools at their disposal.
I'm still convinced that AI and crypto are extremely complimentary technologies and we haven't even come close to seeing them properly integrated. In fact I would say the integration is non-existent at this point. You can't just be like, "this is a crypto AI" and expect that to mean anything. Everyone one of those projects was a needless cash grab with no significant value behind it. Par for the course I suppose in crypto land.
My last post on the market was May 12th.
It wasn't pretty and opened like this:
Relief rally coming to a close early?
I was really hoping that we'd get one of those nice summer rallies before a complete breakdown, but more and more it seems like such happenstances are just a complete fantasy.
This post was annoyingly accurate. I sold a chonk of Bitcoin at $81k during this time to make sure I wouldn't be a distressed seller later. Of course now that I see that this was the absolute local top I'm a bit annoyed I didn't sell more to buy the dip. Typical trading retrospective.
But the really nice thing is that we did get that needed third dip of the bear market. We might actually have bottomed at the mythical $58k support range yet again. Of course there is no reason to bet on number go up because we are still only halfway into 2026. September is the ultimate month to buy, so keep scraping up money and wait to pull the trigger.
A big reason I was tempted to write this post today is Bitcoin is desperately trying to break through the MA(25) and get back into an uptrend. Personally I think this will fail in the short term but it also doesn't matter much except for the swing traders. On the flip side the MA(50/100) is about to death-cross... which doesn't mean much because in my experience the 50 day moving average is the most unpredictable line that I follow. Would not be surprised to see a breakout when it happens but the direction usually ends up being a complete psychout.
There's still a lot of time left in this disappointing summer. The thought of needing to slog through both July and August before finally getting to September is daunting to say the least. Of course we've made it this far and it's almost been a full year since this ordeal started so that creates a bit of solace for this last leg of the bear.
It's hard to imagine any other line being as relevant as $58k has been as far back as 2021. Any long term investor should be happy to buy and hold anywhere near this level. Perhaps waiting for September to roll around is just greedy and overbearish, but also the cycle has been nothing but consistent up until this point, so why fade it now? If we were at $50k in September I would bet an arm and a leg with leverage that number go up. Then again if it was $60k or even $70k in a couple months I would also think number would continue going up. Momentum after disappointing summers like this one tend to trend.
The days tick by as we all wait for clearer skys. They say the bear markets are for building. Hopefully the crypto community is leveraging this sentiment with generative AI to create some real value around here.
