I was really hoping that we'd get one of those nice summer rallies before a complete breakdown, but more and more it seems like such happenstances are just a complete fantasy. At this point the only way to be a bull is to make the claim that "this time is different" and "the 4 year cycle is broken" which is not exactly the side I want to be on. After all, the four-year cycle bros predicted the top down to the month, week, and even exact day. Why would there be evidence that the cycle is broken when the literal top was predicted down to the exact day at one point? At a certain point we just have to all it what it is: extreme copium and the wish that this bear market is already over.
Bear markets last about 12 months so even given a very predictable cycle we only have to wade through a couple more months of bullshit. There's a very high likelihood that September of this year ends up being the safest time to buy crypto since the end of 2022.
At this point I would absolutely prefer that the cycle is not broken and the bear market is not over. What situation is better? We rally to an all time high soon and have no idea what's going on? Or the bottom gets locked in soon and we get 3 more years of straight green? I'd rather have the predictable outcome... as should anyone who gambles on this market.
I had no idea this gap existed. Apparently after the second breakdown of this market there was a massive CME gap to the downside, which is pretty rare. Well, we've just filled that gap and happen to be at painfully obvious resistance lines. This just adds more fuel to the fire that another breakdown is coming. This also happened within the range I call the "liquidity void" which has been a relevant area since it was created in November 2024. It all seems too perfectly ominous.
Every bear market we get these descending triangle downtrends that have never been busted to the upside. Once again the price sits right at the point of that triangle, but the hopium rampaging through the industry is blind to it. Sure, it would be fun to see a deviation, but why are so many people assuming this cycle is broken when the same exact stuff just keeps happening over and over? That's the magic of the cycle I guess... it always works because people keep finding a reason to assume this time is different.
Price is currently being batted down by the MA(200) resistance. We are trading inside the liquidity void, which is good, but the MA(25) support is climbing and we are about to get squeezed one way or the other. So either we have to admit that the 4-year cycle is still active and number go down for a bit, or jump on the "this time is different" bandwagon which almost never works out. Boo!
Pretty much every bear thinks we will make a new local low below $60k. Personally I'm not buying that story. $58k is insanely strong and has been relevant since 2021. To just assume we are going lower than that is a bit foolish. Sure, $50k is possible but lower than that isn't really gonna happen until we get some kind of complete meltdown that nobody saw coming (like COVID). Again, Black Swan events like that are so rare that you can never bet on them unless you have some kind of insight that the majority just doesn't recognize.
You'd think alts would get completely screwed by another BTC collapse but remember that I'm only predicting BTC here. I think there's a decent chance that alts have gotten so wrecked already that they could easily outperform BTC over the next few months even in the case of a breakdown. That being said I often call the second year of the cycle the "year of the maximalist" (2027) which is where BTC typically outperforms everything during the first recovery rally, so take this theory with a grain of salt.
Typically we'd expect to see three major breakdowns during a bear market, and thus far we've really only seen two. Just more fuel to the fire that we have that one last terrible sinking feeling to go before we truly hit rock bottom.
Bitcoin is on the cusp of a huge move, time is quickly running out, and all the historical data points to yet another disappointing breakdown until the end of Q3. Anyone that wants to buy during September (the safest time to buy) needs to at least start DCA selling down if they want to have any dry powder next quarter. Of course as with any speculation this could be a false alarm, especially considering we could crab here for one or even two months straight. Still, I'd like to avoid any "this time is different" rhetoric if I can avoid it. Very little evidence exists to discredit the four-year cycle (if any).
On the bright side even in the worst case scenario we've only got 4 more months of bear market to suffer before getting 3 years of bullish action. Seems like a good trade to me.
