I checked BTC today, and it is comfortably sitting at 83k, over 35% jump from its low of 57k in June. I think October might have more dips than September, just like we did last year.
September last year was not so bad, but the October that followed it was bad. I'm of the opinion that October may have replaced September as a bad month to be a crypto holder, which is a proof of the dynamical change we've been seeing in crypto lately.
A few days back, I boldly said that the four years cycle thingy might no longer be in existence, and this is simply because of the changes we saw in the last cycle. BTC hit its previous ATH before the halving, for the first time ever, In April 2024.
Somehow I felt that signal meant we were going to be pumping harder than 2021, but I was wrong, and by the end of the cycle it only proved that the previous events that happened later would start happening sooner.
This also means that instead of the pump to be directed at one particular quarter of the year, it's going to spread out for 12 to 14 months, instead of just being a "4-months" pump. Also, we have to look at the halving of April 2028.
In my opinion BTC will easy surpass 125k which was the price it topped in the last cycle, in 12 to 14 months time.
So by November/DEC 2027, we will easily surpass 125k BTC with 5 months to go before the halving. The chances of this happening is even higher, considering the fact that BTC is currently at 83k.
I'm not saying we're not going to see any flash crashes anytime soon, infact, We're going to get decent-chunk dumps but even though we get that, BTC is still primed to hit 125k and surpass 125k by November 2027.
So basically it's possible it hits 150 to 170k after the halving, and when it does, the 4 to 6 months period after it, would be a time to exit alts and take profit.
Which simply means, 200 to 220k by July 2028 is the period for alt holders to take profit, anything that extends beyond us is pure uncertainty.
Anyway this is just me trying to connect the dots and use previous and recent dynamism in the market to judge.
A very prime example is the BTC halving event. It just shows that the market's pump is no longer concentrated, we saw this play out a while back and unless something incredibly shocking or devastating happens, you can come back to this in November 2027.
Look at June this year.
It was the most horrible period to be in crypto and arguably the bottom of the market, and since we're past that now, I think everyone will start looking forward to better days.
Conclusion
The market was so bad that everyone started giving up, selling their stash and FUDDing really hard. It was even worse because we all felt that Q4 2025 should have been fireworks, but then we learned a brutal lesson: the 4 years cycle "ideology" is not full proof.
The market cycle happening every 4 years might not just be a thing of sentiment anymore, and the dynamics is changing, which is definitely something I'm aiming to use this post to communicate.
The last cycle was an eye opener, and honestly before anything changes that draft, it might take a way. So if you didn't read and you jump to the last paragraph.
My idea is that there may be no hard or mindbending pumps concentrated in a few months, rather, all we'd gets are small pumps that will keep compounding over a period of 12 to 14 months starting from November 2027.