But then again that's probably exactly the right attitude to have going into one of the most fantastic years of all time. Gold hedges are down and Bitcoin is screaming higher above $80k. $100k looks like it could arrive not only before the end of the year... but at the end of the month at this juncture. The parabolic uptrend is so strong that there aren't any lines to draw it yet. Welcome to the banana zone I guess.
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1854885055652368888
Suck on that Peter Schiff. In less than one year the assets under management in iBit have surpassed iAU. Watch what happens when BTC goes x2 and completely dwarfs gold in these funds. The Bitcoin ETF continues to outperform everyone's wildest expectations, and it appears that it will continue to do so for quite some time.
I'm not sure how far along options are when it comes to Blackrock and Fidelity but they've already gotten approval for them... and who doesn't love betting on leverage with their retirement fund, amirite? Insane development that will only push momentum further into 2025.
Every fuckboi on Bitcoin Xitter is talking about a strategic reserve in which the government stockpiles Bitcoin in order to hedge against their own unsustainable debt. Many are now reporting that it's not just the federal government under a Trump administration, but also a handful of the lesser state governments as well. While I'm not 100% sold on the FOMO here and how much they'll actually acquire, it is certainly worth paying attention to. I'll believe it when I see it. I can't be more irresponsibly long than I already am anyway.
Many point out that it's not a good thing that centralized entities would embrace a decentralized asset because it makes the decentralized asset more centralized. It actually... doesn't. The more people are involved the more decentralized it gets. And with something like Bitcoin the token distribution doesn't matter nearly as much as the mining distribution (and even that isn't a big deal as I have proven in previous posts a 51% attack is impossible because everyone in the world can see who's doing it).
In any case it was very naïve of anyone to think we were going to get mainstream adoption without getting mainstream adoption. You want everyone you like to jump into crypto and everyone you hate can just fuck off on the sidelines? That is not how neutral infra works. That was never an option and it's honestly a little embarrassing that anyone thought it was. You don't get to gatekeep this asset; that is the ENTIRE point.
We may very well be on a path (led by El Salvador) where Bitcoin itself is considered a currency on a legal level... which means governments would no longer be able to tax it under capital gains (income/sales tax only). Should this happen I can't even imagine how bullish it would be... and it's almost guaranteed that other cryptocurrencies would soon qualify for the exact same treatment (after a lot of fuss). To me this feels like a pipe dream but you never know how crazy things are going to get over the next four years.
What about it. 2021 was complete garbage. This is why I find it so funny how much analysis revolves around using 2021 as an anchor-point to guess where 2025 will land. We shut down the entire world economy and then sanctioned Russia and then 3 systemic events crippled the industry (3AC/UST/FTX). 2021 CANT be compared to this new environment... and almost everyone does it anyway. Stop. Higher.
My guess is that 2025 will mimic the beginning of the 2021 run where we get a massive boost right at the start of the year (aka now till March). This will trick people into thinking late 2025 will not deliver just like late 2021 will not deliver. Many will sell there and it will moon higher and throw everything out of whack. Also wouldn't be surprised if the run extended into 2026 to really throw people off. This Time is Different Gang will be deafening.
The only way to successfully navigate 2025 will revolve around NOT BEING GREEDY. If you're up 10x... you take some gains. Doesn't matter if the peak is a 30x or more. The only way to stay sane is to make sure you're in a good balanced position no matter what happens. My target is going to be something like one third each BTC/USD/ALTS. Not yet sure if I'm including Hive in that spread as Hive has always been somewhat of a guilty pleasure. What can I say I'm a glutton for punishment. In fact when everything is said and done Hive may be the only alt I have left by the time we get to late 2025. Everything else is a somewhat fickle holding.
Gensler is toast.
The Wicked Witch is dead
FED fund rate continues to decline and banks are begging for easy money.
Banks always get what they want.
A flood of new money will push crypto up while the inflation doesn't materialize until years later.
This is why I find it funny that people say "inflation adjusted all time highs"
CPI is not inflation.
That is not how money cycles.
MSTR continues to buy Bitcoin using debt and other companies are seriously considering adopting the same strategy. Last I heard they were up something like $10B? I don't even think that includes the stock price which is even crazier.
2021 was a relative disappointment. So not only have we been oversold this entire time due to that disappointing 2022 bear market, but also 2025 threatens to push us into the opposite direction with every asset being wildly overbought in a way we've never experienced before. Everyone is aping in at the same time. All I can say is that I will put a lot of focus and emphasis into maintaining BALANCED positions next year, and I will advise all my readers to do the same. Don't get caught off guard once you've finally made it. Been there done that.
