Bitcoin bulls have long dreamed of their favorite asset earning the same institutional respectability as gold — the same trust, the same staying power, maybe even a shot at similar price behavior. A new short analysis from Bloomberg's ETF specialist Eric Balchunas, shared on X, suggests that wish might actually come true. The catch: the gold playbook isn't the fairy tale some Bitcoin holders imagine.
The comparison that's making the rounds
Gold's rise as a mainstream investment owes a lot to GLD, the SPDR gold ETF that remains, to this day, the most liquid vehicle in the world for tracking the metal's price. Balchunas argues that Bitcoin ETFs are likely to trace a similar arc of highs and lows — precisely because both products share a key structural trait: they wrap a store-of-value asset that generates no cash flow. Unlike stocks or bonds, there are no earnings, no dividends, no government backing to anchor performance. Sentiment alone drives the ride.
That framing carries extra weight coming from Balchunas, who has been one of the most consistent and vocal supporters of Bitcoin ETFs. It also lands at a moment when those same ETFs have been struggling to gain ground since May.
Gold's own boom-and-bust history
The parallel Balchunas draws is a stark one: GLD briefly became the largest ETF on the planet, only to spend roughly eight years in a holding pattern trying to reclaim that peak. If Bitcoin ETFs follow the same script, investors should brace for a familiar pattern — sharp rallies, painful drawdowns, and slow recoveries that test even patient holders.
There is, in Balchunas's view, a silver lining: over the decades, gold has still managed to post a higher high in every cycle, advancing in a "two steps forward, one step back" rhythm.
Does Bitcoin actually work like gold?
The open question is whether that rhythm applies to Bitcoin at all. Historically, Bitcoin's cycles have compressed into much shorter timeframes than gold's multi-year swings, which makes a direct one-to-one comparison shakier than it first appears.
Not everyone reads the current slowdown the same way. André Dragosch of Bitwise has offered a more optimistic take, telling reporters he expects Bitcoin ETFs to see a recovery — even if it turns out to be short-lived.
The takeaway
Whether Bitcoin ETFs are entering a multi-year gold-style plateau or just a temporary lull is still very much up for debate. What Balchunas's analysis does make clear is that being compared to gold isn't automatically the compliment Bitcoin investors have been hoping for — it could just as easily mean years of sideways frustration before any new high.
