I'm in this ecosystem for about 4 and half years. I joined in October 2016, when it was still called Steemit.
I'm not gonna sugar coat it, this wasn't the funniest ride on Earth. On the contrary, I would say it was filled with drama, disappointments, frustration and uncertainty. But, at the same time, it was also filled with hope, sizable financial rewards, incredibly rewarding thought experiments and new, valuable human connections.
If I would draw a line, it will still come on top of it, by far.
But I'm not going to draw a line. Where are we, in the art class? Neah, that's for the NFTs aficionados, we're still in the Proof of Brain realm, so I will write the shit out of my Hive recap.
Buckle up!
The Separation
When Hive forked from Steem, as a way to avoid centralized control, there was a cost involved. In the moment, that cost looked small, or at least affordable, but it was there. Looking at things from now, one year later, I would say the price was actually quite big. But it was worth paying.
What do I mean by that?
First of all, there was an image / brand cost. At some point, Steem was number 3 cryptocurrency in the world, after Bitcoin and Ethereum (yeah, it really was). Everything valuable about this blockchain was linked to the name, a name which took years to build. Forking that name was a very risky bet. If I would talk only about the SEO implications, I would probably have to write 3 separate blog posts. But I won't, because I have so much more to write about other things that could have gone bad, but they didn't.
Second, there was a huge economical problem. Forking Steem and bringing Hive to market, doubled the supply. On top of this mega dilution, it created some mind boggling arbitrage opportunities (to put it mildly) and / or market manipulation scenarios (to say things as they are). Whales woke up not with one huge bag, but with two, that they could swing in any direction. I'm talking primarily about the biggest Steem whale, which had (and still has) much bigger power to prop the price. Eventually, value flew out of Steem, but there's still some left, mostly pumped into from other balloons, but it's there.
Third, there was a risk related to the community. Luckily, the biggest (and the nicest) core chose Hive. It could have go the other way, you know? Some people just feel ok in centralized environments, simply because they value predictability more. If you don't believe me, just look around now and tell me how many people are advocating using social distancing and masks as main anti-pandemic measures, one year after the first case, when we have dozens of symptomatic treatments and at least 3-4 vaccines. Some people are risk averse, and we can't turn that against them. Going with Hive was a risk.
Where We Are Now
Just one year after, here's what changed, in a mixed pot:
- ninja mined stake gone, big plus for credibility and predictability (nobody can sell Hive again to another Justin Tron - or to the same one - simply because no one owns it anymore)
- "smart media tokens" working on layer 2 (hive-engine.com) - this was one of the biggest eternal promises of the former stakeholders, and it was always presented as being integrated into the consensus layer. Eventually, the community built a layer 2 on top of the consensus layer and now we have it, anyone can build these SMTs. Of course, there are fees to be paid, but these fees are normal, it's a sign of a viable economic system
- NFT marketplaces built on top of these "SMTs" just in time to ride the NFT hype
- vertical communities with tokens significantly more valuable (in unit price) than Hive, and here I'm thinking specifically at Leo Finance
- first DeFi platform linking Hive to Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain (via Cub Finance)
- hardcore "shills" - read it like "extremely motivated, visible and effective individuals promoting Hive relentlessly and transparently", here the most popular example is
@nathanmars, huge thanks, man!
- please write your own in the comments, something like "I also think -- this thing -- is a huge milestone, one year after Hive was born", really curious which one do you see (I'm sure I can't see all)
Where Could We Be In 3 Years
The nice thing with mathematics is that you learn the difference between linear and logarithmic. This helps not only understand how pandemics spread (yeah, I keep coming back to this topic, still bothers me at times), but also how effective a community can be at leveraging its power, if all people act together. If all people compound their efforts. If an entire community acts like a huge, collective being. Like, you know, a hive.
So, logarithmically thinking, here's what I see happening in 3 years:
- at least one major, global social media platform, comparable in size with how Twitter or Reddit are now, built off of Hive
- base token value between $50 and $100, with layer 2 niche tokens (the kind of Leo or Cub, of which we will see many more rising) valued way above that, probably in the $200 - $500 range
- sharding / scaling the blockchain in a way that will democratize witness-ing it (if you don't know yet what a witness is in the Hive ecosystem, you should really re-read your tutorials...)
- mobile thin witness nodes, linked to the one above, but not the same
- layer 2 virtual machine allowing for smart contracts capable of creating a real DeFi marketplace inside the hive / hive-engine ecosystem
I know many of these sound very far fetched and fantasmagoric. I know. I feel the same. And that's exactly why I put them there.
Because if, one year ago, someone would have told me that in just one year Hive will have "SMT", NFT, layer 2 tokens more expensive than Hive, a DeFi bridge between us and the rest of the world, it would have definitely seem far fetched and fantasmagoric to me.
There is an ongoing funding proposal for two of my Hive-related projects, which will allow me to support some of the costs involved. If you want to support this proposal, all you have to do is to vote it using any of the two links below:
Sign this proposal with Hivesigner
Peakd: https://peakd.com/me/proposals/165
Already supported by: 
I'm a geek, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Hive you may stay updated by following me 
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