So, its been more two months since the US-Israel alliance started the war with Iran (started on Feb 28). I have written a few posts about the importance of strait of Hormuz, here, and here. This war have been significantly asymmetric and the main reason that US a pausing it's activity is not because there are no targets, but simply because we ran out of ammunitions a little bit! Funny as it may sound, it is the United States who is running low on ammunitions because of the strong asymmetry of this war. Also, the war will continue to remain highly asymmetric to a factor of about 200:1 to perhaps 400:1. As I mentioned in one of the posts before, there are several nations in Asia which are hitting the storage limit now, and therefore, the time for the "escort option" that I discussed in one of my post, is now imminent. So let us talk about the potential scenarios at hand now.
The image above is the current Iranian "Demand" for their version of the control of Hormuz and they want a "toll" from every ship! Well, I have promised in the past that I don't want to drift into opinions on this matter, so I will try my best to keep this post factual.
Sure, they can. They are saying they will have to. Currently nearly 2000 ships are stuck on either side. Yet, there will be problems:
Insurance: The insurance companies currently declining to insure any ships and their cargo going through the strait of Hormuz. This is the fundamental problem, and there is very little you are reading about it in the news
Geography favors Iran: The strait is very narrow—about 21 miles (34 km) wide, with shipping lanes only ~2 miles wide in each direction. Ships are forced into predictable paths, making them easy to track and target. Iran sits on the northern shoreline and nearby islands (Qeshm, Abu Musa, etc.), giving it:
This creates a classic “chokepoint advantage” or a "Kill-box" where a weaker local force can threaten a stronger navy. This will be true to any vessels that will be escorted by US Navy and the Navy ships themselves will be easy targets. Iran can potentially hit targets from shoreline, and the mountains near shores. Hell, it is so close that a shoulder mount weapon can do damage to a ship. It doesn't have to be sunk, just a minor damage will be enough.
Iran does not need to defeat the U.S. Navy head-on. Instead, it uses asymmetric tools that are hard to counter simultaneously: Fast attack craft & swarm tactics
They can attack in swarms, overwhelming defenses
Naval mines:
Cheap, hard to detect
Even a few mines can:
~20% of global oil supply passes through Hormuz
Constant flow of:
This creates:
The Navy must operate in a crowded civilian environment, making engagement rules complex. So, in other words, this can't possibly be a long term solution. There must be "an understanding" between the Iranian government and International community at some point in time. If that requires a different govt. or present govt. that is up to the complexity of the deal. Bottomline, the U.S. Navy can escort ships and keep the strait open, but it cannot do so easily, cheaply, or without significant risk—especially against a determined Iran using asymmetric tactics. So, ultimately this leads to a final item, cost! Who pays for it? To whom?
Cat is out of the bag, ladies and gentlemen. Someone got to pay! Most likely, it will be you and I!
