The Glass Ceiling

This is a Splinterlands land related post where I will be reflecting both on my hope and frustration on the eve of a major land update. I am looking forward to the four land cards as described on the official announcement. With this backdrop, I am presenting a critical plot below to start the discussion. We started gathering data for land stats from April this year. Thanks to @beaker007 's tool, we can accurately track how many plots are active in Praetoria. The vertical scale on the plot below is linear and extremely narrow, from 49,200 to 50,400. So, only about 1200 plot range, where the total possible active plots in Praetoria remains at 150,000. So only 31.4 - 32.4 % of plot have been active. We also know that there have been a lot of development in 2025 related to land. And yet, we haven't been growing organically! However, the silver lining is that we are currently at the very top of the range as we are coming up to the new update.

Why the active plots are stagnant (so far)

Phased Development and Incomplete Utility:

The most significant factor is the phased rollout of the Land expansion.

Slow Utility Unlocking: Land was sold in 2021, but its full functionality has been released incrementally. The critical phases that introduce full utility, like creating unique items, spells, and advanced buildings that significantly enhance the main game, have been delayed.

Phase 1.5 introduced basic resource production (Grain, SPS, Research), which is a necessary foundation but might not offer a compelling enough economic return for all land owners to actively manage all their plots.

Then we have Aura (land 1.75), shall I call it sidetrack or a fork? This is to create some immediately sink for all the resources we have created and produce. Then we had Midnight potion, then Wagon Repair Kits, Fortune tickets, etc, all to use Aura. We are still on that ad hoc path with the land cards where we are essentially creating utility to use the resources that we have already produced.

Phase 2 (currently in development, rather will be in development) is expected to introduce over 50 resources and many buildings, which is where the true strategic depth and integration with the main game will occur. Until this phase is fully live, the land's utility is limited.

Complexity and Barrier to Entry:

Even in the current phase (like Land 1.75, which introduced Wood, Stone, and Iron), actively utilizing land requires:

Staking Cards: The right units (cards) need to be staked as workers.

Staking DEC: Dark Energy Crystals (DEC) must be staked for Power Sources.

Resource Management: Players must manage the consumption and production of Grain and other new resources to maintain operations.

This complexity can deter players, especially those with a smaller number of plots, or plots in various regions. Management of scattered plot is complicated as resources are difficult, or expensive to impossible to transfer across regions (like Aura).

ROI Threshold:

For utilization to organically increase to 100%, the revenue generated from an active plot must significantly outweigh the opportunity cost and the cost of operation (staking DEC, buying/staking cards, active management time). If the current resource-to-DEC exchange rate doesn't offer a high enough profit margin for every type of land, some owners may choose to keep their plots idle, waiting for better market conditions or future utility.

Until very recently (in fact still today), most land resources has no real usage. So without utility, there is limited value, and therefore, no or low price! With low price, the ROI is in the dumpster!

Holding for Future Value:

Many land deeds may be held by investors who purchased them primarily for long-term appreciation based on the future promised utility (Phase 2 and beyond), rather than the immediate utility of Phase 1.5. These investors have little incentive to go through the management steps until the land can produce valuable in-game assets (items/spells) or the management process is simplified.

In other words, speculation. If the price appreciation was the only goal to flip the land token for a quick profit, that dream haven't been realized for most. So finally, by 2022 - 23 or even 2024 people started to give up and throw in the towel and sold their plots at whatever cost they can. Even sold the resource produced at whatever cost they can get. With all sellers, both for plots and the resources, the prices tanked!

Even with the current rise of resource and plot prices, they remained highly depressed compared to their expected value.

In summary, the 32% utilization is likely a function of limited current utility compared to the significant effort and cost required to manage it, leading to players/investors actively managing only their most profitable and high-priority plots while waiting for the full game-changing features of Phase 2 to be released.

What is the expected value

Here, I will be speculating. Maybe, I should say, I will be "wishing" here. I must make one thing clear, Land is a ROI passive return game. So it MUST be profitable, otherwise, there is NO USE!

So I am using beaker's new land planning tool to set up a most basic single grain plot, as per the grain prices today. This tool can be found here:

https://land.spl-stats.com/planning

Putting in that exact plot ID listed below: https://splinterlands.com/land/overview/praetoria/48/139735

• The cheapest grain plot is currently $15! Boy! They have rallied in price!. I see that cheapest Iron plots are $10. We will stick to grain for this post.

• This one does come with BIB, so there is a power core, so no additional price for that

• Pelacor Bandit Common Max Regular Foil can still be had for $2.4 for 1 Max copy. So five of them will cost you $12.

• Then you must stake 50,000 DEC to activate the plot. At today's price that is $29.34.

Adding I get: 15 + 12 + 29.34 = $56.34

I am a bit off from beaker's calculation, but not by much. Say $60, among friends!

Without any boost, that plot earns 1.013/h, or 24.312/day in DEC. Therefore, $5.23/yr, at todays price of DEC.

ROI is a bitch for volatile assets, especially like DEC, which is currently trading at a discount, but that calculates to an ROI or 5.23/56.34 ~ 9%

If the DEC gets to peg, that could be $8.8 in earning or ~ 15%

Back to the original question: What is the expected value?

I personally like to see the cheapest land to be having at least 20% ROI, sustainable for the whole year, and yes, I didn't forget about castle and keep taxes. I want to see grain prices at least double from here to be comfortable with expected value.

Currently 1000 grain is trading at 20 DEC. I like to see them trading at 40 to 50 DEC to be reasonably comfortable. That is my personal expected value.