People used to say "machines will take all the boring jobs and humans will refocus on art and creativity".
Turns out art and creativity are easy because you can get away with being "wrong" as long as it still looks nice, but reliably doing boring nonsense is hard.
Also anything in the physical world.
Probably a lot of office jobs will go, because they could have been replaced with a short Python script years ago if anyone had written good APIs, and language models let you compensate for the lack of APIs.
Social things mostly just require you to say the right platitudes at the right times. People got problematically attached to Replika's AI girlfriend and that was with a 7B-parameter model. All you need is a sufficiently good-sounding voice and aesthetically pleasing face.
The occupations I expect to last longest are (roughly in order):
High-skilled engineering (if AI can do this, it can build better AI and we die)
anything with regulatory barriers (doctors, lawyers)
physical tasks in uncontrolled environments (trades etc)
I would say something about celebrities, but I'm not quite sure how that will go. My assumption is that celebrities won’t be replaced necessarily, but that “AI celebrities” will start to also take up space in the attention market.
