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Youp
@youp
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2017-06-22 22:49
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youp
bitcoin
7y
The 21 weekly moving average
As you can see in the above chart, the previous uptrend was contained quite disciplinedly by the weekly moving averages. The green one is the 21 EMA (exponential) and the blue one is the 21 SMA (simple).
$ 0.082
6
youp
bitcoin
7y
Either a correction up, an extended wave v, or a new wave 3
We have corrected into the Fibonacci green, but have we corrected enough? We've had a nice threewave correction into the above Fibonacci target zone. The weekly stochastics are still a bit high, but the
$ 0.000
3
youp
bitcoin
7y
Testing Renko charts III
The ATR (100) Renko chart still looks good. But the ATR cannot be used when it changes every day. It consequently must be a fixed number to determine whether a Renko brick will be painted up or down or
youp
bitcoin
7y
Testing Renko charts II
When comparing today's Renko chart with the one from yesterday, I noticed that yesterday's red brick has turned into a green one because the trend indicator has changed course, while it hadn't done this
youp
bitcoin
7y
Testing Renko charts
There is beauty in the clarity of a Renko chart. Especially when you can improve on the already existing clarity with an additional indicator. Below is the Renko without trend indicator. Also, not so bad.
youp
bitcoin
7y
Correcting
Wave 2 is on the way down. So far it looks like a regular a-b-c correction, but it can of course change into something more complex. The stochastics on the weekly are very overbought while on the daily
youp
bitcoin
7y
Stock To Flow value rises to 1.91 for June 2019
And I think that's too high for this period in the cycle. As the triangle that contains the S2F values shows, also promising a much less volatile future, we can go to approximately 2.5 on a monthly basis.
youp
bitcoin
7y
Towards $7400
Wave 1 is complete, I would say. We're in wave 2 now. Notice how prices bounced almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the top. For some this has been a reason to suggest that this
youp
bitcoin
7y
Bitcoin topping out with an ending diagonal
Around $9950 I already thought bitcoin was close to a top, but then, this is bitcoin and it never stops surprising. We had a massive run towards the $11.8k resistance. But now it seems to be making an
youp
bitcoin
7y
We are getting close
Wave v of (v) has unfolded as expected and we seem to be approaching the end of it. Of course, an impulse can always extend so let's check the indicators to see how likely that is. An extended move means
youp
bitcoin
7y
Some clarity is emerging for this wave v of (v)
As wave v unfolds, its structure is becoming clearer. It looks like we have one more move up to go towards $10k. The volume is low which confirms the lack of strength normally associated with a wave 5
youp
bitcoin
7y
Wave 5 impulse confirmed
Well, we're making a new top. Obviously the a-b-c wave iv correction has been invalidated. This is the trouble with all forms of analysis. You can only make an assumption. Which, sometimes turns out to
youp
bitcoin
7y
A quick update
Last week's count seems to be valid still. We're in a wave iv correction of which we have completed wave a and have probably almost completed wave b; wave c down to follow. I don't think it will be hard
youp
bitcoin
7y
Elliott wave count and indicators on 5 time frames
Some quick charts. First the weekly bitcoin chart for some overview. I don't think the impulse has finished yet. We have not completed minute waves iv and v, these are the encircled, burgundy red ones.
youp
bitcoin
7y
The progression of Stock to Flow multiples and why bitcoin will become first less volatile, then the most stable asset on earth
What do we see in this chart? First of all, the monthly bitcoin price in black bars. The 3 vertical purple lines are the halvings. The blue rectangles represent the time period 1 year before the halving
youp
bitcoin
7y
BTFD, but be patient
Another week has passed and we seem to be pushing steadily for the resistance at $10k. To my surprise, and quite a few others, the $6k level was crossed without any hesitation. Although there was a little
youp
bitcoin
7y
BTC target one year after the coming halving in May 2020
Occasionally I look at Fibonacci Channels to try and bring order to the chaos of prices. In the above chart, there are three: one is steadily moving up from the beginning - although, it must be said, it
youp
elliott
7y
Elliott Wave Impulse 1 finished or not?
A week ago I thought a third wave had completed just below $6000, but prices decided to sprint 2500 points further. Has the move from $3000 completed an Elliott wave impulse? Bitstamp, daily chart: completed
youp
elliott
7y
Wave 3 has topped, 3 scenario's
I think minor wave 3 is making a top here. As you can see wave 3 is subdivided into a number of smaller five waves, with the last five wave completing wave v of 3. Now, it can be that this minor threewave
youp
elliott
7y
No news is good news
We're still in minor wave 3 where we seem to be building subminuette wave iv with, obviously, wave v to follow. All according to plan. Nothing to get excited about with the possible exception of minor
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