Wave 1 is complete, I would say. We're in wave 2 now. Notice how prices bounced almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the top. For some this has been a reason to suggest that this whole move from December 2018 is a B-wave of a greater A-B-C correction that started at the top in December 2017 with the bottom of wave A at 3100 and now the wave B top at 13800 with a new low to follow. While that is possible, I don't believe it as we seem to have completed an elliott five wave impulse as below.
Zooming in on the last leg up, this also is a pretty principled five wave. Although the brutal extension of it certainly surprised me.
Wave 2 target should be the previous wave iv which is in the $7400 - $7500 region. The strength of the decline also suggests there is more downside potential. Around that target area, we're going to re-assess the situation.
There is confirmation of this count in the Huobi10 index and also the total crypto market.
