After about a week breather from the markets, we are back at looking at what we can expect going forward. By the looks of it, we move upwards next:
As I stated in the mid term outlook on BTC, the descending triangle was very real. We broke it, and swiftly I might add. We are still far from out measured target at $2900-3100, depending which chart you're using. I do expect sometime this year that there is a high probability we will hit that mark, or at least come close. Right now, however, the next move is retracing upwards.
You're pretty much oversold on every oscillator you can pick out of the hat and we are showing very significant bullish divergence on most oscillators also. As shown above, we have a number of patterns to lead us to be pretty bullish here. For one, we have a pretty nice falling wedge developing on the 4 hour, which is short term bullish. We also are showing a lot of divergence on the MACD and RSI. We actually made a lower low in price while showing positive momentum on the MACD. Pretty bullish if you ask me. RSI is making higher lows as the price is falling as well. We also had a few nice long bullish wicks which held the price up very nicely on a few occasions. We did get rejected by the 20 MA a couple of times, but it is good seeing it start to test that area as it will need a little more thrust to break. We could fool around below it a little but I do think it will break soon. The 50MA is pretty far above the current price so I would also like to see us start playing around up there as well hoping we can get through the 20MA quickly.
Usually when measuring retracements out of a falling wedge after bearish breakdowns we use a fib to measure the swing high to swing low. Proper areas where we can retrace to sit between your 38%, 50%, and 61% on the fib. Going by what I have charted here, it would seem we could see BTC pump between $5000 - $5500 before continuing downwards. No, I don't think the bear market is over but here seems to be a great place to open a low risk long if you wanted to.
Overall, we are still mid term bearish, but as of right now, we are short term bullish. Charts usually do a pretty good job in giving you an idea and it seems pretty clear the next move is up. Plus, everyone thinks its the end of BTC or that another leg down is coming. Maybe so, but the market takes its sweet time and will drag it out as long as possible to mess with your heads before it does :)
Hope this helps!
