Welcome back to my usual, weekly technical analysis. We're getting closer to the month end, so let's see what we can do and where, when it comes to trading these assets and pairs.
On the monthly time frame, not much changed since last week. We have a little over one week, or a week and two days till the monthly candle close, to be precise. Price is still below the monthly open and if nothing changes, we're going to get a bearish, possibly engulfing candle, but we'll see. Previous analysis on this time frame is valid.
The weekly chart looks a bit better if you want to be bullish, but nothing to write about home yet. Last week we got a doji looking candle, but if you zoom in, the candle has a very slim bullish body. This week's candle, although it closes in about 14 hours, looks like a doji as well, which mean indecision (for those not familiar with the term).
Why I said price on this time frame looks a bit better? Because for the second week in a row price is showing indecision. Obviously it can go either way from here, but it also means the bearish momentum is lost for now.
There's not much to say here at the moment, other than we have to let the market show its hand, make a move to either one direction or the other. As I said last week:
Levels to watch are the same as last week, all time low (ATL) at $0.0327 is this weakness continues and if we get a huuuuuuuuge bullish candle, by a miracle, the $0.0988 it is on the upside.
On the daily time frame, price went into consolidation right after setting the current swing low on the 9th of this month. We have a bearish fair value gap, that was rebalanced on the10th, and has been retested several times since then, but it is capping the market at the moment as price has never managed to invert it.
In order to get a bullish continuation, price needs to close above the gap and hold, after which the high at $0.062 could be next. In case we get more weakness, we could witness price revisiting the current swing low at $0.0453.
On the h4 time frame, the consolidation is even more visible. If I count my dealing range from $0.0453 to $0.0561, price at the time of writing, is slightly below mid-range. If it manages to get above mid-range and turn it into support, we could see a move to the upside and a sweep of the range high. If not, keep an eye on range low at $0.0453.
$BTC tried to touch the second bearish gap on Monday (yes, there were three gaps, one was rebalanced, inverted and then price invalidated it) and got rejected. Now there's another bearish gap, a small one on the sell side, that price trying to reach as we speak.
So far, we have a higher high at $67,276 and a higher low at $62,216. If price manages to invert the gap (close above and hold), then sweep $67,276, there's a chance to invert the next gap above. If we get a rejection here. we go back to $62,216 and if the weakness continues, swing low at $59,081 is in the cards too.
ETH/BTC managed to print a higher low at 0.025893 last Sunday.
Zooming in, you can see price is still inside the bearish gap and about to retest the bullish gap created on Monday this week. If the gap is successfully retested and we get a bounce, then sweeping 0.027538 could be next. If the gap fails to defend price, we could be back to sweep 0.025893.
Next week we have a light week, as far as economic data is concerned, as we only have one red folder day, on Thursday. However, stay safe as manipulation happens all the time.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
Do your own research, make your own decisions as you're taking the risk.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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