Cryptotards unite
Everything is going to 10x at minimum and bull run mania is just around the corner. Obviously this would not be happening, had Harris won. Even if we can't take Trump's promises at face value, it's clear that this administration isn't going to be anti crypto with all the things that have been said so far. Some regulation would still make sense to make the field less ambiguous to investors and entrepreneurs, but hopefully it's going to be very crypto friendly. I guess the question now is: how would a crypto friendly regulation look like?
If it looks anything like the EU version of MiCA then we are going to have a bad time. I covered the regulation last year in a deep dive and it's being enacted in 2025. It's clear that such regulation is intended to streamline crypto into tradfi giving it little room for innovation. It also wants to establish a clear taxation framework which leaves little to no room for DeFi.
Luckily, the US could take a very different turn and actually become a leader in the crypto space once more. Maybe some of the bigger exchanges could even be coming back to the US?
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
There is talk about the US government buying 200k BTC a year for five years to acquire a total of 1M Bitcoin. Of course the US already holds already 213k+ of BTC so that would bring it well over a million. Will it happen? Who knows, maybe it's just talk to climb the political ladder because it's a trendy thing to talk about "B".
If we crunch the numbers it's surprisingly not as big of a buying pressure as I first thought. But that is if all things remain unchanged (which they won't.
200k BTC a year equals to around 548 BTC a day and 548 BTC equals to "only" around $41M with BTC at around $75k. I am saying only here because the 24 hour volume completely devours that amount (when trading iss above average). Just in the last 24h we saw over 57B in trading volume. 41M is not even a fraction of .1% (it is 0.07%).
But BTC will not stay at these levels for sure. 41M could easily turn into 300M in a couple of months before the US even starts to buy. Who wouldn't try to front run the government?
The other points of course is that many other countries could follow suit. So 548 BTC a day could turn to thousands of BTC a day... and then there are the institutions.
This is pretty much exactly how we get trillions of $ flowing into crypto once more ensuring a bull run mania in 2025 (and perhaps beyond?)
And yet we still have to wait a bit to see what was political hot talk and what will actually be done. I doubt that the political establishment is truly interested in delivering on crypto's promises as it is by nature an anti-estbalishment technology.
Conclusion
It seems everything is playing out exactly as it should (like magic). We get BTC breaking higher highs in the coming weeks and months and ALTs most likely following very soon to break the BTC.D uptrend. It seems easy to fall into the trap of "this time will be different" again and think that these kinds of developments will ensure an "only up mode". It's probably safer to bet on the established cycle. The question is: do you have the balls to sell the top?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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