It's been 3 months already and as we all know the crypto market hasn't exactly played out as anticipated. Q4 ended up as a major disappointment with Alts going to ATLs (!) and BTC barely holding on to 90k. My BTC chart finally needs an update as well after having had a pretty good track record for several years.
I think the general idea of a prolonged cycle and a peak in 2026 seems reasonable for BTC. I am not favoring a bear scenario since it just doesn't add up to me at the moment. Falling under 80k for several weeks would, however, seem to confirm it. But for now, this hasn't happened.
The red line that has acted as a resistance fro many times seems to be the most crucial level to pass before a bull can be confirmed. As you can see, it would play a continued important role in my outline. First, it would be retested as support and then act as a floor for price to climb higher. There definitely is room for BTC reaching $400k+ in 2026 and if so, would likely be the top everyone was waiting for in 2025. The first peak at around Q1/Q2 in 2026 could go as high as $200k. Again, this is the bullish scenario. It may feel off or "too extreme" because we have forgotten what a real bull market feels like. But imo these are reasonable price targets.
Should the blue "support line" fail (it is very weak to start with) and price head continually south I would consider this outlook invalidated.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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