Yes, it's a lot less than I had hoped, but there is no use in sticking to old charts when price moves on. The reality (so far) is that Hive has underperformed in this cycle. BTC and ALTs have continually outperformed Hive in the last years and now Hive is still sitting at 20 cents - just a double of what it was 5 and a half years ago.
This latest fractal has escaped my attention since it took the majority of this year to get properly established. I have a good enough feeling now to be somewhat confident in the target for this bull cycle top.
My main idea is that we have seen 3 fractals for Hive that can be used for anticipating future trends. If you look closely, they resemble each other fairly well: a strong impulse wave and then a gradual decline over a longer period.
We can also say that there is a baseline with a final downturn before trend change (the bigger fractals can be split up again as seen with the dotted line, here you can see it for the middle one):
As such, there is a "problem": the fractal we see on the right would need to take a dip soon, but supposedly we are at the end of a bull year?! It also doesn't really have any "room" for the dip, since the previous one happened almost at this level... And if this was "it", then Hive would likely get crushed in the following bear market and this would leave price at like 2-3 cents?! While this could always happen, I think the chain and the community are simply too strong to share such a fate.
I therefore propose a mode change for the fractal: instead of going down, the step change will likely be going up. If so, we have one obvious target for the bull market cycle top at around December.
When we connect the last part of the fractal with the following peak we can draw a line that has predicted the peak very well. This can be done for the 2021 and 2025 periods.
This gives us around a range of $0.9 to $1.1 for December and a range of $1.2 to $1.4 for August 2026.
I have pointed out in past posts that I think there is a good possibility for an ALT peak in 2026. If you don't share this view, you can go with the traditional target of December. As such, we have a very reasonable - yet disappointing - price target for this cycle. I certainly had hoped for a much higher one!
Again, I am not certain of a 2026 peak (and cycles suggest it won't happen, but a lot has been different in this one). Playing it safe would be the ~$1 target at the end of this year, alternatively it could be up to ~$1.3 later on.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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