But today is unexpected. Hive made a lower low after the pump and was briefly down 11% even before the whole crypto market dipped lower! This essentially means that the pump we saw was used to dump Hive rather than accumulate it (at least in the broader sense of the market participants). Not so good news overall, but perhaps it was just somebody trying to get out of Hive (was it you Justin?). In the past, pumps often retraced often almost to the start of the pump but it is hard to find a case like today when we actually went significantly lower...
I was arguing that Hive would stay above ~48 cents as going lower would invalidate the step ladder of recent months where we always saw a higher high after a significant pump. But today Hive fell as low as 46 cents which means it even retested the macro support.
This macro support is, however, different for every exchange where it is traded. On the HIVE/USD pair (calculated by Trading View) it is lower than on the HIVE/USDT pair. For the HIVE/KRW pair on Upbit it is between that. The reason is that the support line is dependent on the crash of June 2021 when Hive went to about 16 cents. But this low is different for every pair and in turn the support line also varies.
If we look at the HIVE/KRW pair which has the largest volume we can see the support where price currently is sitting on. We can see that price went below that in June of 2022, but only for the daily chart. The support held nicely on the weekly chart. In fact, if we look at the weekly chart there is still a bit room left
In the last post I pointed to two scenarios after the pump of which the first one seems to have been confirmed now. This would see a rejection on the daily trend line and see a retest of the macro support. Price is doing that exactly now, although the "fierceness" of which it is doing that is, again, surprising.
In general it seems to me that the trend lines are pointing to two major wedges which are running out of space. The orange one is from the previous highs while the blue one (overlapping) covers the horizontal resistances. Note that both of the wedges were often broken to the upside, but failed to do so on the weekly chart (for the orange horizontal line this would be starting from May 2022). Generally speaking, price breaks out to the top or bottom before it gets stuck to the very end.
My best guess and hope is that this price correction will merely stand out as an isolated wick on the weekly scale. Price needs to hold at this macro support (a close above the trend line on the weekly chart), otherwise there is no telling where it could bottom out... Well probably between 20-30 cents, but that is not where we want to be going.
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