Yesterday we saw a big green candle for Hive - the likes we haven't see for over a year. My argument is simple: I believe this is the start of a macro trend change. Why? Because this was a "biggy" and such volume has always happened within a continued uptrend.
We still have more than 4 days left for the weekly close, yet Hive has had a 700M volume on Upbit alone so far. There were only 4 periods we have ever seen such volume (red boxes):
When we highlight the box areas in the chart, the uptrends become obvious. The only caveat is that the type of uptrend is quite up for debate: the first one was an almost year long rally that resulted in a new ATH; the second one were two brief rallies extrending only for barely a month; the third was a definitive trend change, but only lasting for several months. I guess one could easily argue that only the first period was a real bull run, while the others all happened in a downtrend.
So I guess when I am saying that I am expecting a trend change - the only thing I can say for certain is that this pump (and dump) won't be a daily event; it's going to last at least some weeks. But honestly, it is quite unclear how much of a trend change we will end up with. As you can see for the best scenario I am expecting a price swing all the way back up to the main resistance which sits at around 30 cents.
Just some days ago I posted my macro outlook for Hive which actually anticipated such a move, but I was expecting it to take the major part of the year for it to play out. Again, this pump might retrace all the way back down, but overall I think price should move up over the coming weeks. The pump itself was "triggered" by the price breaking through the red daily resistance trend line and encountered the purple weekly trend line resistance at close to 8 cents before pulling back.
If the favorable scenario plays out, I would expect a relatively fast return back to 20-30 cents, before encountering the big macro resistance which could take price back down a lot again. This is still very early and speculative, but we should know soon if we will see the long awaited trend change - and just maybe it won't be that short lived.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅
⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅
