I only logged in now, well after the pump so I didn't get a chance to sell the local top. But the CEX whales are having fun again it seems. This massive pump comes just 26 days after we had the first one this year. This one is a bit smaller than the last one, but it is still around $100 Million daily volume. For some reasons I am unsure, Hive can pull these numbers off while being pretty far down the crypto ladder. I have been arguing that these Hive pumps seem to be confirming a bottom and a macro trend change. This one today fits in quite nicely.
Yet it is always disappointing to see these pumps getting eaten up so fast. Price has already crashed by 30% is down back in the 6 cents area. In fact, these pumps don't seem to be doing anything sustainable for price it seems. Depending on the time frame, we get different directions of price movements. But since April price is up on average.
Let's go back to the last two bottoms and see what happened back then. Did we see a similar pattern?
I would actually argue that this time is different. While price has moved in a similar way (volatile movement within a consolidation), volume is behaving rather different this time. As you can see there was virtually no volume in 2021 and 2024. But this time there are massive volume candles with hundreds of million $ traded in mere days. Before we have seen such a movement only in times after the consolidation phase had finished. But what does it mean for Hive if we are already seeing such action potentially before the next leg up?
First, I think it signals actual demand. This demand may merely be for speculation and making money off of price manipulation. But still, I think we wouldn't be seeing this if Hive was "dead". It also confirms to me that the 5-6 cents area is the macro bottom. It seems more likely that Hive will sustainably go up in price after this rather than continue the downtrend. Finally, I think this activity may also signal a strong and fast reversal back to the ~30 cents area which can be seen in the macro resistance coming from the two lines in the top of the chart.
There is also another option. Perhaps Hive's consolidation phase has already passed and these pumps are the onset of the impulse wave. This would actually fit pretty good as well:
However, previously we have seen price not go back lower after such a pump which is why this seems like an outlier. In any case, both scenarios would suggest that Hive's price is about to go up big time.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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