Looking at the chart, it would seem that 2025 was a mediocre year for ETH. But it actually rallied from ~$1500 to ~$4500 before it gave up some of those gains. Overall, I think ETH is set up for a similar run like 2020-2021, although the big difference has been the time that ETH has traded in the $1000-$4000 range. It has been 4+ years without any serious price appreciation (although it has been a good range to trade in).
Breaking through the red resistance in the 4k area should be pretty big, since last time this initiated a 1+ year rally taking price from under $100 to almost $5k! Obviously, we won't see such a big price swing this time, but it should still be a good time for ETH hodlers.
My outlook is quite straight forward. Once the resistance is broken, I would expect price to tag along the black trend line which is quite a bit less steep than in 2020-2021. The last time it took around 350 days for the first big peak to establish itself with a second one around 1.5 years later. If we take this time frame a first peak could be reached in Q4 of 2026 - essentially a 1 year delayed bull market.
However, getting timing is always the hard part. I could easily see the rally last much longer as the price movements are much more elongated in recent years. If so, a rally in 2027 is definitely possible. Although the target seems to be a bit more clear: The ceiling should be around $24k for Q4 of 2026 with a lower one at $10k. Should the rally last longer we could see higher targets as well.
Vitalik some days ago tweeted that ETH had solved the trilemma problem. While ETH isn't the only one that has done that, it still seems like a bullish case. To be honest, using ETH nowadays actually doesn't feel terrible anymore. Gas fees are in the cent range and transactions are quick! For anyone around longer than a year, this would have been a dream... ETH should perform very well in an Alt season and overall I don't think it will get dethroned from #2 anytime soon.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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