In the last post I reasoned that we would see a rejection a a former support line. This didn't happen. Instead, prices climbed by about 18%. So what happened? This is the chart:
I reasoned for this further downtrend as I identified a fractal which pointed to a further decline in price. However, looking at the chart again, it seems that the downward channel is currently more dominant. It is not perfect, but I think it could be valuable in identifying future price movements: if price breaks above this channel, I think prices could once again move towards 40-50k. If it gets rejected, I see prices moving towards 28k. The channel is seen here:
Also, keep in mind that the volume is still in decline, which historically points to a crash rather than a break out to the top. These channels are very difficult to trade in as one generally makes bad trades: it is easy to get sucked up in the euphoria just before it bounces off the top resistance and easy to sell at the bottom for fear of a further decline.
The safe bet currently is to not trade. Wait for a confirmation of a break out to either side.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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