Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Let's speculate about Hive's Bull Run Potential
Take this post with a grain of salt as all I can do is give you my best take on Hive's potential for the next bull cycle top. Many seem to agree that this would be around the end of 2025, simply because this is when we can expect Bitcoin to reach it's next ATH. So what could happen in 2 years?
First, the fundamentals; Hive is getting a lot of upgrades soon and many Dapps will release and evolve. Together with the active and vibrant community I would consider this the true value of the network. We have:
- Organic growth/grassroot movements in many places like Venezuela, Nigeria, Cuba etc. Many meetups, hackathons, borehole projects show just how amazing and active our community is. We can expect this only to grow in the coming years and expand to more countries.
- Blockchain upgrade: bringing smart contracts to Hive has been a long time goal and with both
@blocktrades and
@vsc.network working on this feature we should have that capability within the next year. This will be a very big upgrade and feature that should allow for tremendous growth and innovation.
- Powerful Dapps are coming! The
@spknetwork alone could be a "killer dapp" by enabling decentralized and incentivized storage of files and videos. A world's first! But we also have
@leofinance (Inleo) that has now built an amazing UX for short form content. It's a breeze to sign up and should be able to onboard many more users. We of course also have
@splinterlands that has now released REBELLION and is about to launch LAND 1.5 as well as SOULKEEP that has massive potential to bring in more users. But so many more games are coming, like
@holozing
@ragnarok.game or
@psyber-x that should launch in 2024. These are just a few of many more in development, but I see every one of them as a potential game changer for the coming years.
Chart
While the fundamentals look very promising at the moment, we also have the charts. Can we predict anything useful here? While this is speculation, I think the chart shows the potential for a pretty impressive rally.
This is the most bullish scenario I can think of. Price would essentially rally for the next months peaking sometime in spring and then settling back down until winter of 2024/5. Then, finally, one last big push to around ~$20. Does that seem excessive? Actually not really! It would "only" be around a 4-5x from the previous ATH. If anything, it seems like a very conservative target. It very nicely lines up with the previous highs as well (blue trend line). The path outlined here is a mirror image of the "smaller" wave we from 2021 to 2023. The target in spring of 2024 would be at around $2-3 and a rejection back to around $1. While the price increase form around $1 to around $20 seems large, the same kind of increase happened in 2021 when price went from 16 cents to $3.4. After 2025 we could then probably expect a massive devaluation of around 90%+ that could crash the price back down to around $1 over 2 years. That too seems quite realistic, judging from past cycles.
Conclusion
Is this an outlandish scenario, a bull's dream? Maybe! But I tried as best as I could to "ground" it in data that we have (which is not too much for Hive). The most important development currently is the breakout from the weekly resistance (purple trend line). This could catapult price to around 50 cents and beyond in the coming months. If it does not, this whole scenario will probably turn out to be inaccurate as price needs to increase until at least $1 in the foreseeable future for price to be able to ever reach the high teens or 20s.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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