Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Hive's price is very interesting to watch at the moment
After having successfully anticipated the last two pumps, we have to ask ourselves what is in store for the next few weeks/months. We generally "dump" after a pump like this which takes a lot longer to finish than the initial pump. But looking at the charts I have a feeling that things might turn out more bullish than what many might expect.
First the reasons for why we might just dump as "always"
Chances are generally much higher for the normal scenario to play out which stated as above is for Hive's price to dump over a much longer time frame than the mere days of a pump. That would bring us down to about 40-45 cents again, probably over the next weeks.
There is a lot of info in this chart: We can see, for example, that price has been rejected among the long trend line coming from the previous highs. With this pump it has been rejected 4 times. This would suggest that we would just keep go along with this trend. But of course trends always break sooner or later. Hive's fractal would also suggest that we will again follow the established pattern which means following the "M" pattern (see my other posts for the nature of Hive's fractal). The other information gets clearer when we zoom a bit out.
Here we see that Hive has been moving in this converging channel and we also see that there is a horizontal divide. Note that the supporting trend line at the bottom has been now confirmed for 4 times making this a strong support.
So why am I more bullish?
The trend lines from the previous highs (forming the resistance) and the macro trend line from the former lows (forming the support) are converging. Price never runs to the end of the forming wedge as I have suggested here:
Instead, there is generally a break out occurring much sooner. We also know that the supporting trend line is on the macro scale while the resistance trend line is at the meso scale (i.e., it is on a shorter time frame). In my theory this makes the support stronger which would mean that a break out to the top should be more likely.
At the very least I would think that after a retest of 48 cents prices should test the resistances at about 65-70 cents. This is an important range as we see two big trend lines converging here. One is the macro horizontal, the other the trend line coming from the highs of the weekly chart. However, should we test this range the chances for completely breaking out of this position is much higher still.
However, if we do prices normally tend to retest the trend line out of which price broke out. So believe it or no, we could go all the way back to about 45 cents before moving up again. Alternatively (the green scenario), we could head higher. But this is dependent on the crypto markets in general. While Hive often heads higher in a slightly red crypto market, if Bitcoin revisits 16k-18k Hive won't be just going up. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But I hope that I have shown you the potential that Hive has. And long term it seems we can only go up.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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