Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Darkest Before Dawn Moment?
With the BTC halving in less than 70 days, we are well into the bull market. Most coins have done several Xs, and so far everything is looking like a repeat of past cycles. If so, there is only around another 1.8 years of the bull market left before we head back into the bear. If that sounds a bit scary, it's probably because Hive ain't no where near a level we could comfortably talk about another bear market. In fact, we are at ATLs of the last bear market. It almost seems like Hive wants to do the impossible and go for another lower low in a bull market. People will freak out, of course should that happen - and it seems quite justified. But... let's not panic just yet.
Hive has a lot going on atm and it's dawned on me that we already have the killer dapp. Pick yours:
3SPEAK (decentralized file storage)
Inleo (web3 X copy with payouts that actually matter)
Splinterlands (one of the most active gaming dapps in web3)
Arcade Colony (easy onboarding of web2 games)
V4V (BTC lightning network solution)
VSC (smart contracts and BTC wrapping/liquidity)
The L1 itself also acts as a freedom of speech platform/data storage
Do I need to go on? (or talk about the soon to be released dapps like 
Every one of these dapps is already a potential killer dapp; the thing that is missing is adoption. The thing that is missing is marketing. The thing that is missing is easy of onboarding.
Show me one web3 network that has this much development going on, has a strong user base and such an evolved ecosystem built on a free to use base layer. There is none! (or if there is kindly point it out)
Chart ain't looking good
But also not terrible - we have been in a multi year long consolidation at around 20-50 cents so at least price isn't nose diving for now. If we can hold the 25 cents as the bear market low it is a raised floor from the last one which was around 10 cents. We also know that Hive can go crazy in the final year of the bull market which still leaves us several months.
The HIVE/BTC chart is in a seemingly bottomless fall. The chart from my last post has aged quite well with the potential bottoms still very well in play:
What I'd like to point out is that it seems Hive needs to go into a free fall before it can recover. This happened in 2020/2021 when price nose dived and has a "V shaped" recovery. It seems we first need to fall before we can rise dramatically. For this to happen BTC needs to make some bigger moves in the coming weeks and months which seems quite possible.
The HIVE/USD chart doesn't look much better. We have the macro support holding us up, but it's telling that we are back at that level - again, it's almost as if Hive is flirting with a lower low. Should the thicker blue line fail, we only have the thinner one preventing a lower low:
Conclusion
Hive: hang in there! There is so much potential and to me at least it's clear that we do not have to wait for the "killer dapp" (although it wouldn't hurt to get a new one of course); we already have it - the thing that is lacking is exposure to what we already have here. We need marketing, we need engagement on X, we need eyes on the things we have so people can start using them. Should we fail, I would be surprised for Hive to break $1 in this bull run. It's going to be all down hill from there. Let's do our best and spread the word!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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