So far it has almost perfectly followed this anticipated path. One decisive incident was the rejection from the trend line from back in 2020 which is something that happened at least 2 times in a similar way before (2018 and 2020). Often this is a good indicator to use for future developments.
Two weeks ago I already gave a more close up view of what I would expect for BTC. This was the rough outline:
So far it has held up very good. We saw a continuation of the decline to 40k and some small rebounds. With this downward momentum we should expect prices to test the trend line which has previously been the catalyst for the "Bezos rally". I would expect either (a) a rebound from it and a hard correction to the 20ks or (b) a breach to 30k and a rebound to test the trend line again at around 40k only to head back to the 20ks.
These scenarios are somewhat similar as they both end in the 20ks. It is unclear to me where the support could hold. The obvious contender would be the orange/yellow channel that you can see being overlain. The minimum would be 20-23k. I am very confident that prices will not go lower than that. But the past has shown that prices do not always go all the way back to the lowest support. For that reason I drew in a box which I think will be the likely prices range for the macro correction.
From a time perspective it seems that this is tying in very nicely to a Winter/Spring rally which would mark the last phase of this bull cycle. I have often noticed that there is a rally coming at around this time (for reasons to me unclear). So if you are thinking about investing in just about any coin, I think the next 2-3 months should be a good time frame to progressively acquire more coins.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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