Back in November it looked as if BTC.D was about to jump off a cliff just like in 2021. But then... nothing happened. Q4 of 2025 of course was a joke for Alts and we can clearly see that in the chart. Here is the one back in November with the projection.
Here is an update. Clearly the ratio isn't "behaving" as most thought it would.
So the question that comes up is: could we actually see a second peak before Alt season? That is if we ever actually get an Alt season... If so, we could see something like this.
Interestingly, the uptrend wouldn't be that much more than what we had last time. It would be around 3.5 years instead of 3 years. After reaching around 64%, BTC.D would start to fall in late spring and really take a hit in late summer going down as low as 42%. This would be quite different to last time in which we saw the downtrend starting in winter.
TBH a second peak like this does look like it could make "sense", but it's also clear that there isn't exactly a lot of data to make such an inference. The other option to consider is that we may not actually see a dramatic dip anytime soon. Perhaps BTC.D defies odds and just chugs along at current levels?
BTC.D is making it very clear that we haven't seen an Alt season so far. The fact that the ratio is hovering around 60% suggests that we may not see a dramatic dip anytime soon. If so, a second peak does seem reasonable before a real Alt season could develop. If so, the timing would be a bit off, but it would be even stranger to not see a big dip in the chart as well.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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