Here's something interesting. I added a 50-day EMA indicator on the chart that I am following, and made some analysis:
- In general for the most part, prices tend to respect the 50 EMA. This means that when prices are above the 50 EMA, they tend to follow the same direction. I.e. if price is above the 50 EMA, the general direction of the trend tend to be uptrend and vice versa.
CAUTION: Still, there are times when this is not true. This will be especially true when the price runs up exponentially, like during the June 2017 surge. The ensuing retrace caused a downward price move even though the price was still way above the 50-EMA line. So, be very careful about following the direction of the trend if a price has run up tremendously.
- There were a total of 8 touch points. On 4 occasions - #1, #4, #5, #8 - when price did not succeed in breaking the EMA line, the price continued in the current trend direction. Arguably in the case of #8, we are still printing the bars so we are not sure what will transpire from here.
On the 3 occasions where it successfully broke through -- #3, #6 and #7 - it indicated a subsequent shift in trend.
- So right now, price is very near the 50 EMA line once again. Are we at the cusp of a change in trend, or will the breakout fail and resume it's current downward drift? Only time can tell.
What do you think? Base on this, is the EMA a good general indicator to know the trend of STEEM/BTC?
Risk Warning: All comments, charts and analysis on this post are purely my own and should in no way be treated as recommendations or advice, nor should they be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Please do not trade based solely on the information provided on this post. Furthermore, past performance does not guarantee future success. Always do your own due diligence and analysis when trading.
Chart courtesy of TradingView
