Please note that this is not necessarily referring to the market price of HIVE nor should this be construed as financial advice.
Instead, what we are referring to is the position Hive is placing itself in. Much of this is due to development. We are seeing somethings beginning to roll out that could have a major impact.
For a few years, I wrote that the biggest absence tied to Hive is a robust smart contract platform. That is on its way, something that is going to make a major difference for the ecosystem.
At the same time, it is being designed in such as way that we will see scaling unlike most other smart contract systems. Since this is being done on a sidechain. we are seeing how the ability to add infinite smart contracts without slowing the main blockchain is possible.
To scale, the solution is simply to add more nodes.
The thing to get most excited about is the fact that Hive will be able to bridge to other platforms. This is done mostly through tokens which will be of great help to those with assets on Hive.
We all know it is difficult to get in and out of the Hive coins. These are not listed on many exchanges. Entry (and exit) often requires going through many steps, having a cost at each layer.
The threat of regulation is not making this any easier. Ultimately, entities get nervous when governments are threatening to come after them. With so much uncertainty, it is no wonder that companies are pulling up stake.
Decentralized solutions will fix this. We are about to see something that makes life a lot easier for those on Hive. Hopefully, testing goes well and it is brought into production rapidly. Either way, being able to use a flip Hive coins into a vehicle currency is huge.
This alone changes the entire make up of the ecosystem. It also allows the projects on Hive to develop their own solutions if desired. Once the smart contract capability is built, the contracts can be used by whomever. Here we see how expansion can be accelerated.
Infrastructure takes time. However, once it is in place, developers can run with it. The pace of building applications is much faster than infrastructure once the latter is in place.
Web 3.0 is going to change the world. Before getting into this, it is helpful to differentiate Web3 from Web 3.0.
Web3 can be thought of as the blockchain and cryptocurrency. This is a component of Web 3.0. The next generation Internet is something much bigger. Some are calling it the 4th industrial revolution (Klaus Schwab stole it by the way).
This includes the following:
Obviously these technologies are at different stages of development. Some might not even see the light of day. Certainly, we are not going to see massive shifts in all of them over the next 6-12 months.
That said, some are making huge strides. One is artificial intelligence. While some reasonably question the hype cycle, the development keeps progressing. Technology can get hyped but the progress tends to remain consistent. This is what forms the S Curves that it is known for.
We are seeing a major transition taking place with sports, news, and other broadcast channels. This is something that Hive can take advantage of with some further development. By building our own networks, we can start to expand the attention economy that is forming here.
This all feeds into the circular economies we have forming. What often gets overlooked is the distribution mechanisms we have in place. This is only going to keep growing, something that will benefit all who are involved.
As we feed more money into the economy, growth takes place. This is enhanced by the velocity of money that is achieved. We then supplement this with a host of choices in both commerce and finance.
Some of that is already forming.
It is very difficult to time things.
How long will it take to develop something? Ask any developer this and you basically get a guess. There is no way to do anything other than approximate. Even then, there are a variety of issues always to navigate.
Hive might seem like it is moving at a snail's pace. In some ways it is. This is what happens when things are built from the ground up without the enormous pockets of venture capital firms.
That said, we have Hivefest where there is guaranteed to be some excitement. This is where some new insights could be revealed. Whatever is brought forth will be on top of the advancements that are already known.
Could we see the impact in the next few months? Will it be 6? 12? 18?
This gets to be a fruitless exercise. However, there are a lot of things being built that are going to entirely change the complexion of Hive.
One example is what we discussed in the past. Time vaults will be a part of the base code. Again, it might be in the next hard fork or the ensuring one. We have no idea.
The point here is that, once those are in place, coupled with smart contract capabilities, decentralized finance (DeFi) applications can be built in a manner that reduces the counterparty risk to the users. Think of what Coinbase is doing with Base yet without the same centralization that permeated through the existing financial system.
I like to take a bottom up approach to things. When constructing economies, certain pillars need to go in place. They are complex organisms that form and take on a life of their own. We would not expect a forest to emerge without a root system.
It is the same thing here. Putting down roots is slow, boring, and lacks excitement. However, it is the foundation upon which all else can be built.
After that, then things can go hyperbolic. We are inching towards that time with Hive.
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