So, is the US in a recession?

Yes

But, it hasn't been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research -

So it doesn't count.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community". The NBER is well known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

It is easy to stop things from happening these days, all you have to do is adjust the definition. A recession isn't two consecutive negative growth quarters, a vaccine doesn't have to stop a disease, a man can be a woman and a woman a man - just change the meanings of words and all is well!. After all, it is just meaningless social constructs and reality doesn't have to get in the way. Reality can be whatever we decide it to be and we can change the universe, just by calling it something different.

Try it at the bank. Just walk in there and say there is a problem with your account because you can't buy a a Ferrari with the available funds. When they say it is because you have $12.46 in total, tell them that is exactly right and in your construct, that is the precise amount of money required to be available in the bank in order to purchase a Ferrari and you want them to honor the trade. If they disagree - sue them for discrimination. If Ferrari won't sell you a car for $12.46, sue them too.

It is interesting though, because money really is just a social construct, where we have all been led to believe that there is a value in these numbers, notes or coins and we can trade them for goods and services. Because we hold this agreement framework and act accordingly, it works. However, as we have seen over the last couple years, believing in it doesn't mean it can't be manipulated in ways that might seem unbelievable - like increasing the supply by over 40% in less than two years, saying that this won't cause inflation or economic problems down the track.

As long as we believe it won't

Until it happens and inflation runs rampant and economic problems are the norm. And, there is very little chance of coming back from the precipice, as the only tool in the box the Fed has is to increase interest rates. However, the global economic structure is such a mess, that the tools of the pass no longer work, because the way the economy works is entirely different from the past. Applying the same tools to the economy now is like having a blacksmith making microprocessors in their workshop.

There is a high level of complexity and the centralized approach to managing it is continually going to fail, because it just doesn't have the sensitivity and touch required to know what is needed by whom where and when, nor the processes in place to adequately distribute resources accordingly, whilst still keeping everyone involved, content enough not to rebel.

Centralization isn't a bad thing per se, but the larger a system gets, the more difficult it becomes to manage and, the more random takes place, meaning that it increasingly becomes unpredictable and evolutionary. If the governance structures don't evolve accordingly, they will be outgrown. It is like that little gate that people put at the top of the stairs to stop babies from falling down them - at some point, the baby learns how to open it or if not that bright, becomes capable of climbing over or pushing through it. But, if you beat the hell out of that baby so they fear even going near the gate, they won't have the chance to learn about it or push through it, so all is safe.

We are beaten babies.

The authorities of this world have taught us, trained us and conditioned us into the belief that there is no other way to run an economy except under their management. That alternatives are "false gods" - and yes, it is very much like the indoctrination into a religion that drives these belief systems, which is why crypto enthusiasts are seen as fanatics, as they are like preachers of a new religion, that the old is firstly denying exists and then saying that it isn't a real religion and following that god will only get you punished.

However, when it comes to economics, it doesn't matter what you call something, there are still rules involved, like the laws of supply and demand. And these can only be broken artificially, like the law that says humans cannot fly can be broken, for a period of time. Eventually though, the unchallengeable laws will regress to the mean and be proven true, where even after a period of heavy artificial manipulation, nature will always win. It is because of this that no centralized empire has ever survived, because eventually, the laws of supply and demand overpower the artificial status quo laws and demand to change is the driving force.

Right now, I think the supply and demand on the economy is shifting and we are starting to understand that there are indeed alternative and very much viable belief systems in terms of economic practice. The more we start to explore the financial world for ourselves, the more we begin to recognize just how flawed the current system is and how many opportunities there are to improve economic outcomes for all of us globally. While the governments say it is "all too hard" to change, the bourgeoning new economy is saying,

Watch us change it.

The economic incentive of decentralized finance and crypto, is quickly charging what used to be the passive user of the economy and turning them into active batteries. Where the traditional economy is about using the energy to support itself until the battery of the individual is depleted, the decentralized alternative is creating an economy where there is a constant powerdown and powerup running, creating a far more circular economic framework that will improve distribution to avoid the mega peaks of wealth, as well as lifting up the very wide troughs.

In time, it is not going to matter if the US economy is in recession based on their calculations, because the tools of money they use to calculate will be increasingly irrelevant to the point of completely useless. Because, to really understand the state of an economy, all information needs to be included in the evaluation, not just what a "private and unbiased" organization chooses is relevant and chooses how they define that relevancy. This simplified approach no longer works in distributed complexity, but it doesn't mean that complexity can't be managed at all.

While governments around the world have trillions of dollars they can't account for, something like the Bitcoin blockchain, hasn't missed a beat. That should be something the governments should want to implement into their own accounting practices to offer a far better experience for the people they govern through precision and transparency - unless they want to hide something.

Which they do.

So they beat the baby some more and keep repeating what a good parent they are.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]