Sitting in a café writing.
Some people look at me weirdly when I am using a laptop in public, which I think is down to me using a physical mouse instead of the touchpad. It is not that I am totally incapable of using the pad, it is just that I am much, much slower when using it and far less accurate since the stroke. Typing is also laboursome, because while I have never been a touch typist, nowadays I hit the wrong keys, type the wrong words, and generally mash the keyboard like I have salami fingers. My dexterity has definitely suffered, mentally, physically, emotionally, socially.
I was talking with a potential (very slim chance) client today, who called me directly after I emailed him last week. We have been having a back and forth discussion for almost a year now, and it really isn't leading anywhere, but since I have little else to do and we have good conversations, we keep talking. He supposedly wants to hire me directly and is supposedly still interested, but due to a terrible first quarter, they have a hiring freeze and no space for non-billable work.
Totally understandable given their field and the state of the world, because the uncertainty created means that their clients are putting development projects on hold and reducing people, which means they have budget adjustments also. This however is creating a backlog of work that will eventually need doing, as the technical debt keeps climbing. At some point, this will create a lot of work, but at the same time, an increasingly large part of that work is going to be manageable with AI support. So even when there is a lot of work, the potential client of mine will need less people to do it.
While I have been harping on about the impacts of AI for a decade or more, I still don't think many people have really grasped how much can change with relatively minor shifts. We can have a look at current events in Ukraine and Iran as an indicator of the knock-on effects, where for instance blocking the strait of Hormuz has had and will continue to have a fundamental impact on not only prices of oil, but availability of many things. For instance, a lot of fertiliser is shipped through there also, and with growing season in the northern hemisphere starting, not having enough fertiliser on crops has a very large impact on yields. And AI support is going to affect every industry, reducing the need for people and even if it is only by 10% globally, the chain-reaction of impacts through the supply and demand environment is enormous.
Another example that can be taken from the current wars is the cost of drones and the cost to down them. An Iranian drone costs between 10K-50K to produce, but depending on the technology used, it could cost up to 4M to shoot one down. That is a massive asymmetry, meaning that those defending against drones would see their costs skyrocket.
The cost of AI agents is very low in comparison to a fell-time billable human dev and can create a huge amount more, far quicker. It might not be able to do the very high-end development work yet, but it is a matter of time. The problem is that development service companies will be able to utilise AI to keep their costs down, but so do all the competitors, meaning there is no advantage. However, the companies are set up to be able to bill a certain amount for projects, and there are lots of fixed costs that can't be offset with reducing developer headcount.
But more than this, as headcount is reduced, there are a whole lot of other businesses and society in general that is built to operate with x-many people working, and if it falls below that number, it becomes increasingly unsustainable. And when many people lose their jobs in some industries, all industries suffer, because there is less financial availability to demand. And then all industries are under pressure, as are all the mechanisms that keep a society functioning. Restaurants have less patrons, supermarket product ranges have less support, people travel less, drive less and in general, all consumer goods and services have lowering demand.
This sets up another problem though, because once all this starts happening, people suffer more. And what that means is that the average person will get more disconnected, more isolated, more stressed, more depressed, more volatile, less engaged and this will lead to even less movement, more emotional eating, more broken relationships, more impacted children, lower health, increased healthcare costs.
Change one thing, and everything changes.
And right now, far more than one major thing is changing in the world, and none of these changes are made with the betterment of humanity in mind. There isn't even the intention of doing good with unintentional bad results, because it is only looking to maximise profits for the few. And no matter what field you are in, or how comfortable you are financially now, when society collapses, everyone is going to be affected by the downfall. Because like it or not, just like the businesses and governments that have been structured to have a certain amount of inputs, we as humans are also structured to require certain conditions.
We need certain nutrients in specific amounts to maintain or improve our condition. We need certain inputs and active processes to be able to be keep mentally acuity. We have to have certain kinds of conditions to develop mental health. And we have to have the right kinds of interactions and relationships to hold social wellbeing. Without the right mix, we become individually imbalanced, which has a knock-on effect across all of society. This is not alarmist, it is reality, and denying that we have human requirements that need to be met is maintaining ignorance, that isn't going to bring bliss.
It is just going to exacerbate the problem.
We generally don't deal well with ambiguity, but the future is always an unknown. We can predict what is going to happen, but when we are only looking to the past as an indicator of the future and believe that we are correct, it means that when new conditions that we haven't faced before arise, we shoehorn them into our understanding. AI is a new condition that humanity has never experienced, which means equating it to technology impacts from the past may be wholly inappropriate and inaccurate. Our intuitions for it are probably wrong and we are unable to fully comprehend what it means for us, because we can't comprehend what that kind of intelligence can even do, let alone the impacts it will make.
A little bit of my brain was starved of blood and oxygen and died, but the effects it has had on me has been profound in more ways than my typing ability. But even though the bit of brain died in my head, the effects aren't limited to me, because everything I do is impacted and that means my family and everyone else I interact with personally and professionally are also experiencing the change. Most of it is not for the better, if any.
We need to start making changes for the better, not for the profit.
It might seem inefficient in terms of production, but we have to revaluate the purpose of all we do, and what is the ultimate goal of our activity. If we only produce for profit, the outcome is clear that more and more of humanity is going to suffer to the point humanity ends. If we shift to producing for humanity, we could keep improving human existence infinitum.
Press any key to continue.
Taraz
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