The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation (Appendices, End N...

Below are the appendices, end notes, and references for the paper The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation.

Appendix A

Table 9: Results of BHAP Capacity Projects Evaluated with CARP

_Project	_Funding	_{Project Name}	_{NPV ($)}	_BCR
_C1	_BHAP	_{Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St}	_-77,213,044	_0.03
_C3	_NB2	_{Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd}	_45,820,000	₂
_C4	_BHAP	_{Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication}	_-156,797,288	_0.48
_C11	_BHAP	_{Townsville Northern Access – Intersections}	_-25,251,631	_0.34
_C13	_NB2	_{MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection}	_24,411,154	₂
_C16	_BHAP	_{Bowen Intersection Upgrade}	_-25,713,888	_0.04
_C19	_BHAP	_{Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade}	_6,000,000	_2.2
_C20	_BHAP	_{Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2}	_-30,352,887	_0.24
_C21	_NB2	_{Mackay Northern Access Upgrade}	_12,370,545	_1.12
_C23	_NB2	_{Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2}	_13,610,000	_2.4
_C24b	_BHAP	_{Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction}	_606,633,413	_2.35
_C26	_BHAP	_{Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication}	_-218,508,625	_0.44
_C27	_BHAP	_{Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade}	_-15,145,614	_0.43
_C28	_BHAP	_{Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication}	_-191,770,422	_0.34
_C29	_NB2	_{Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd}	_-4,515,257	_0.69
_C30	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2}	_-80,876,381	_0.15
_C31	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1}	_-72,730,761	_0.04
_C32	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Intersection upgrades}	_-19,097,193	_0.59
_C42	_BHAP	_{Tinana Interchange}	_23,851,426	_1.48
_C43	_BHAP	_{Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built)}	_-44,268,686	_0.11
_C43	_BHAP	_{Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built)}	_-39,240,964	_0.22
_C44	_BHAP	_{Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built)}	_-112,261,525	_0.12
_C45/C46	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2)}	_-505,185,103	_0.75
_C47	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built)}	_376,668,653	_1.63
_C47	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built)}	_346,013,096	_1.58
_C49	_NB2	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section A}	_-124,540,496	_0.84
_C50	_BHAP	_{Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2}	_-43,642,984	_0.79
_C51	_BHAP	_{Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 – 4)}	_{-1,408,359,418}	_0.25
_C53	_BHAP	_{Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade}	_-2,788,076	_0.97
_C54	_NB2	_{Managed Motorways - Gateway Motorway}	_370,704,869	_2.72
_--	_--	_Total	_{-1,765,183,215}	_0.78

Source: TMR 2013	-

Table 10: Results of BHAP Flood Immunity Projects Evaluated with CARP

_Project	_Funding	_{Project Name}	_{NPV ($)}	_BCR
_F3	_BHAP	_{Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily}	_-26,644,493	_0.65
_F4	_BHAP	_{Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation}	_-702,502,989	_0.11
_F4/F5	_BHAP	_{Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell}	_-763,858,109	_0.18
_F5	_NB2	_{Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade}	_-109,714,804	_0.21
_F6	_BHAP	_{Haughton River Upgrade}	_-397,283,384	_0.11
_F8	_BHAP	_{Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2}	_-377,662,248	_0.74
_F9	_NB2	_{Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade}	_-43,725,950	_0.09
_F10	_NB2	_{Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade}	_-70,035,637	_0.07
_F11	_BHAP	_{Goorganga Plains Upgrade – Preserve}	_-304,170,956	_0.07
_F12	_BHAP	_{Jumper Creek Upgrade}	_{-9,116,930 0.37}
_F13	_NB2	_{Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade}	_-149,309,621	_0.49
_F14	_BHAP	_{Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade}	_-44,566,698	_0.16
_F15	_BHAP	_{Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade}	_-38,291,244	_0.25
_F16	_BHAP	_{Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades}	_{240,839,436 6.20}
_--	_--	_Total	_{- 1,983,825,834}	_0.49

Source: TMR [2]	-

Appendix B

Table 11: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Capacity Projects)

_Project	_Type	_{Project Name}	_{Capital Cost ($)}	_{Estimate Stage}
_C1	_BHAP	_{Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St}	_80,000,000	_P90
_C3	_NB2	_{Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd}	_58,000,000	_P90
_C4	_BHAP	_{Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication}	_300,000,000	_P90
_C11	_BHAP	_{Townsville Northern Access – Intersections}	_30,000,000	_Other
_C13	_NB2	_{MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection}	_26,000,000	_P50
_C16	_BHAP	_{Bowen Intersection Upgrade}	_20,000,000	_Other
_C19	_BHAP	_{Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade}	_5,000,000	_Planning
_C20	_BHAP	_{Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2}	_40,000,000	_Other
_C21	_NB2	_{Mackay Northern Access Upgrade}	_80,000,000	_Other
_C23	_NB2	_{Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2}	_9,000,000	_Other
_C24b	_BHAP	_{Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction}	_450,000,000	_Planning
_C26	_BHAP	_{Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication}	_390,000,000	_Strategic
_C27	_BHAP	_{Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade}	_20,000,000	_Strategic
_C28	_BHAP	_{Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication}	_290,000,000	_Other
_C29	_NB2	_{Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd}	_11,000,000	_Other
_C30	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2}	_95,000,000	_{Unit Rates}
_C31	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1}	_75,000,000	_{Unit Rates}
_C32	_BHAP	_{Rockhampton Intersection upgrades}	_30,000,000	_Strategic
_C42	_BHAP	_{Tinana Interchange}	_50,000,000	_Other
_C43	_BHAP	_{Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built)}	_50,000,000	_Other
_C44	_BHAP	_{Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built)}	_110,000,000	_Other
_{_C45/C46}	_BHAP	_{Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built)}	_{2,050,000,000}	_Concept
_C47	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2)}	_600,000,000	_Concept
_C49	_NB2	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built)}	_790,000,000	_Concept
_C50	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built)}	_209,000,000	_{Unit Rates}
_C51	_BHAP	_{Cooroy to Curra - Section A}	_{1,875,000,000}	_Prelim
_C53	_BHAP	_{Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2}	_110,000,000	_Prelim
_C54	_NB2	_{Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 - 4)}	_215,000,000	_Strategic

Source: TMR [27]	-

Table 12: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Flood Immunity Projects)

_Project	_Funding	_{Project Name}	_{Capital Cost ($)}	_{Estimate Stage}
_F3	_BHAP	_{Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily}	_80,000,000	_Concept
_F4	_BHAP	_{Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation}	_810,000,000	_PPR
_F4/F5	_BHAP	_{Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell}	_145,000,000	_PPR/Concept
_F5	_NB2	_{Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade}	_955,000,000	_Concept
_F6	_BHAP	_{Haughton River Upgrade}	_460,000,000	_Tender
_F8	_BHAP	_{Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2}	_{1,430,000,000}	_Prelim
_F9	_NB2	_{Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade}	_49,000,000	_Prelim
_F10	_NB2	_{Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade}	_80,000,000	_P90
_F11	_BHAP	_{Goorganga Plains Upgrade - Preserve}	_340,000,000	_PPR
_F12	_BHAP	_{Jumper Creek Upgrade}	_15,000,000	_Prelim
_F13	_NB2	_{Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade}	_296,000,000	_Prelim
_F14	_BHAP	_{Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade}	_55,000,000	_P90
_F15	_BHAP	_{Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade}	_52,000,000	_Strategic
_F16	_BHAP	_{Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades}	_60,000,000	_Strategic

Source: TMR[28]	-

Appendix C

Figure 1: Map of the Bruce Highway and Proposed Projects

Source: TMR [2]

End Notes

Appendix C contains a map of the Bruce Highway, which includes the locations of all the BHAP projects.
BHAP is referred to as both the funding body as well as the strategic action plan that encapsulates the NBP1, NB2 and BHAP funded projects.
MRS defines the number of carriageways, seal width and accident rate for a specific road type (TMR 2011a)[8]
Projects may have been ranked prior to the CBA using alternative methods such as multi-criteria analysis.
The BCR has been presented in the BHAP report rather than the NBIR as the BCR was stated as the requirement from the TMR BHAP committee.
Although this assumption is unrealistic, in order to compare project results, all projects need to be evaluated over the same period.
Chartview is an ARMIS database containing road characteristics and traffic data.
Q50 Bridge is built to a standard where it will only flood during a 50-year or worse flood event.
Maintenance costs are based on information provided by the Regions.
Projects are recommended based on obtaining a BCR above one for the Flood Immunity Program of Works rather than each project achieving a BCR above one.
SIDRA Intersection is a well-known software package used worldwide for intersection capacity, level of service and performance analysis by traffic design, operations and planning professionals [21].
VOC have been calculated within CARP as the SIDRA fuel consumption data was not provided with the other SIDRA data, which was recorded in a spreadsheet.
‘Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) cover any technology applied to transport and infrastructure to transfer information between systems for improved safety, productivity and environmental performance’ [22].
The upstream area is the section of road immediately preceding the overtaking lane [8].
The downstream area of the overtaking lane is the section of road immediately following the overtaking lane [8].
The results covered in this section are just a broad overview of the program. A detailed discussion of the benefit and cost streams of each project or even the program as a whole would require another paper. The TMR BHAP report contains more information regarding the results.
Maintaining a program NPV of greater than one is important to demonstrate the overall viability of the program form a strategic approach even though the benefits of some of the projects are understated.
P50 estimate is an estimate with a 50% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].
P90 estimate is an estimate with a 90% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].

References

[1] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan “Out of the Crisis”, Queensland Government

[2] Transport and Main Roads (2013), Benefit Cost Analysis – Bruce Highway Action Plan Economic Evaluation, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)

[3] Nemhauser, G. L. and Ullmann, Z. (1969), Discrete Dynamic Programming and Capital Allocation, Management Science, 15, (9), 494-505

[4] Gear, T. E. and Cowie, G. C. (1980), A Note on Modeling Project Interdependence in Research and Development, Decision Science, 11, 738-748

[5] Fox, G. E., Baker, N. R. and Bryant, L. J. (1984), Economic Models for R&D Project Selection in the Presence of Project Interactions, Management Science, 30, 890-902

[6] Tao, X. and Schonfeld, P. (2006), Selection and Scheduling of Interdependent Transportation Projects with Island Models, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1981, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 133-141

[7] Davies, W. (2012), Road Program Evaluation: Assessing the Bigger Picture, 25th ARRB Conference

[8] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Cost-benefit Analysis Manual: Road Projects, Queensland Government, Brisbane

[9] Austroads (2005), Economic Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Investment Proposals: Harmonisation of Non-Urban Road User Cost Models, Austroads, AP-R264/05

[10] Austroads (2001), Economic Evaluation of Road Investment Proposals: Improved Predictions Model for Road Crash Savings, Austroads, AP-R184

[11] Road Transport Authority (2004), Accident Reduction Guide, NSW Government

[12] Austroads (2012), Guide to Project Evaluation – Part 4: Project Evaluation Data (Updated Road User Effects Unit Values), Austroads

[13] Austroads (1996), Benefit Cost Analysis Manual, Austroads, Sydney

[14] Australian Transport Council (2006): National Guidelines for Transport Systems Management in Australia, 5 Background material, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra

[15] Campbell, H. F. and Brown, R. P. C., (2007), Benefit-Cost Analysis Financial and Economic Appraisal Using Spreadsheets, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

[16] Davies, W. (2011), Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011

[17] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Upgrade (Cooroy to Curra), Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[18] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade, Queensland Government

[19] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan – Project Descriptions, Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[20] Transport and Main Roads (2010), National Managed Motorways Discussion Paper, Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[21] VIASTRADA (2008), SIDRA Solutions, VIASTRADA LTD, available at http://viastrada.co.nz, accessed 27/05/2013

[22] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), Intelligent Transport Systems, Australian Government, available at www.infrastructure.gov.au, accessed 27/05/2013

[23] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Widening, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)

[24] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), A Ten Year Plan for a Better, Safer Bruce Highway, Australian Government

[25] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Project Cost Estimating Manual Fifth Edition, Queensland Government

[26] Miller, E. M. (2005), The Cutoff Benefit-Cost Ratio Should Exceed One.: An article from:
Engineering Economist, Institute of Industrial Engineers.

[27] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Capacity Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)

[28] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Flooding Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)

The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation (Appendices, End Notes, and References)